MDA vs NOC: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. MDA and NOC share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined MDA and NOC exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

MDA Space Ltd. (NYSE: MDA; TSX: MDA) is a Canadian space-technology company that builds and operates hardware and systems across the space economy. It runs three business areas: Satellite Systems (software-defined satellites under the MDA Aurora product line, plus payloads and antennas for low-, medium-, and geosynchronous-orbit constellations), Robotics and Space Operations (the Canadarm robotic arms, including the Canadarm3 program for NASA's lunar Gateway), and Geointelligence (Earth-observation imagery and analytics, anchored by the MDA Chorus radar constellation expected to launch in late 2026). Headquartered near Toronto with major operations in Montreal, MDA has decades of spaceflight heritage and supplies both commercial constellation customers and government and defense agencies.

Full MDA guide

Northrop Grumman is one of the largest US defense contractors, supplying advanced aerospace, defense, and security systems primarily to the US government and allied militaries. Its business is organized around four segments: Aeronautics Systems (military aircraft and the B-21 Raider stealth bomber), Space Systems (satellites, launch, and missile-defense and space sensors), Mission Systems (radars, electronic warfare, sensors, and networking), and Defense Systems (missiles, ammunition, and the ground-based strategic deterrent program modernizing US intercontinental ballistic missiles). Northrop is a leader in stealth aircraft, space systems, and strategic deterrence, holding key positions on programs that are central to long-term US defense priorities. Revenue is dominated by long-duration government contracts, providing visibility and a large multi-year backlog, though margins depend on program execution and the mix of fixed-price versus cost-plus work. As a prime contractor on strategic programs like the B-21 bomber and the Sentinel ICBM, Northrop is tied to defense-budget trends and great-power competition. Founded in 1939 (modern form from the 1994 Northrop-Grumman merger) and headquartered in Virginia, it is a large-cap defense and aerospace company that pays a growing dividend.

Full NOC guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• MDA drivers: Satellite constellation buildout; Robotics and Canadarm3.
• NOC drivers: Strategic franchise programs; Large backlog and revenue visibility.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: MDA's revenue is concentrated in a handful of large, lumpy programs, so a delay, cancellation, or schedule slip (as seen when Telesat Lightspeed's in-service target moved into 2028 on a supplier chip issue) can move results materially. For NOC, northrop depends heavily on the US government, so defense-budget cuts, continuing resolutions, or shifting priorities directly affect revenue.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick MDA if you believe its drivers more; NOC if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the MDA and NOC guides.

MDA. MDA is profitable and growing, with early-2026 revenue up about 32 percent year over year and full-year 2026 guidance for roughly CA$1.7 to 1.9 billion in revenue and CA$320 to 370 million in adjusted EBITDA (an 18 to 20 percent margin). It trades at a premium earnings multiple that prices in continued backlog conversion, and free cash flow is guided neutral to negative as it funds factory expansion and chip development. Figures are approximate and reported in Canadian dollars; the NYSE market cap is in US dollars.

NOC. Northrop trades at a valuation in line with large defense primes, reflecting backlog visibility, strategic-program leadership, and steady cash generation balanced against program-execution and budget risk. The multiple tends to expand during periods of rising defense budgets and geopolitical tension and compress when budget concerns or program charges weigh on sentiment. The dividend and buybacks support total return.

Headline figures (approximate, JULY 2026): MDA shows revenue (2025) ~CA$1.6 billion (up ~51% YoY), revenue (q1 2026) ~CA$464 million (up ~32% YoY), adjusted ebitda (q1 2026) ~CA$91 million, 2026 revenue guidance ~CA$1.7 to 1.9 billion; NOC shows revenue (ttm) ~$42 billion, operating margin ~10-11% (sensitive to program mix and charges), net income (ttm) ~$3.5-4 billion, eps (ttm) ~$25.

MDA and NOC are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined MDA and NOC exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.