NUE vs TX: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated August 2026
Short answer
NUE and TX are similarly sized, but TX trades noticeably cheaper on forward earnings (7.32x vs 14.18x): the market is paying up for NUE's profile and pricing TX more conservatively, or for faster growth. Which you prefer comes down to the drivers you believe, and whether adding either over-concentrates what you already own.
NUE vs TX: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | NUE | TX | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E | 14.18 | 7.32 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 20.53 | 15.33 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 1.92 | 1.16 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 90% of range | 88% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 2.66 | 0.89 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Reading it: TX is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.
Before you buy: how NUE and TX affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. NUE and TX share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined NUE and TX exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does Nucor (NUE) do?
Nucor is the largest steel producer in the United States and one of the largest in North America. The company uses electric arc furnace (EAF) technology that melts recycled scrap steel rather than traditional blast furnaces that smelt iron ore. EAF steel production has significantly lower carbon emissions than blast furnace steel and is generally lower-cost in North America given the abundance of scrap and the cost of natural gas relative to coking coal.
What does Ternium S.A. (TX) do?
Ternium S.A. (NYSE: TX) makes flat steel: hot-rolled, cold-rolled, galvanized and color-coated coil sold to carmakers, appliance manufacturers, pipe makers and construction distributors across the Americas. Its industrial system runs through Ternium Mexico (mills and twelve distribution centers concentrated in Nuevo Leon, plus the Pesqueria Industrial Center), Ternium Brasil (a ~5.0 million ton slab plant in Rio de Janeiro), Ternium Argentina, and a consolidated controlling position in Usiminas, Brazil's largest flat steel producer. A second segment mines and sells iron ore in Mexico and Brazil, giving the company unusual raw material self-supply for its size. Steel shipments were ~15.1 million tons in 2025 and mining shipments ~13.0 million tons, with headcount of ~33,253 at year end.
NUE vs TX: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- NUE drivers: Infrastructure and reshoring demand; Carbon-advantaged production.
- TX drivers: Mexican import substitution; The Pesqueria steel shop finishing.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Steel cycle volatility. For TX, steel is cyclical and Ternium is a price taker: 2025 adjusted EBITDA fell ~24% year over year on lower prices, and the same mechanism works in reverse.
NUE or TX: which should you pick?
NUE vs TX: the full fundamentals
NUE. Nucor trades at a modest P/E typical of cyclical steel. The premium versus pure commodity peers comes from EAF cost structure, operating discipline through cycles, the 51+ year dividend growth streak, and infrastructure/reshoring exposure. The multiple expands during steel up-cycles.
TX. At a market capitalization of ~$10.8B on ~196 million ADSs, TX trades at roughly ~15x trailing earnings per ADS and under ~1x the ~$12.3 billion of equity attributable to parent shareholders. Trailing earnings blend a weak second half of 2025 with a much stronger first half of 2026, so the multiple looks high against the current run rate and low against the 2025 trough. The balance sheet moved from ~$712 million of net cash at the end of 2025 to ~$112 million of net debt by June 2026 as capital spending and the May dividend went out the door.
Headline figures (approximate, early 2026): NUE shows revenue (ttm) ~$32 billion, operating margin ~12% (cyclical), net income (ttm) ~$3 billion, eps (ttm) ~$13.50; TX shows revenue (ttm) ~$16.0B, adjusted ebitda (ttm) ~$2.0B (~12% margin), earnings per ads (ttm) ~$3.57, market capitalization ~$10.8B.
The bottom line: NUE vs TX
NUE and TX are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined NUE and TX exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how NUE or TX fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in Nucor with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how NUE fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between NUE and TX?
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Nucor is the largest steel producer in the United States and one of the largest in North America. Ternium S.A. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is NUE or TX the better stock?
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Neither is universally better; they suit different views and risk levels. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, NUE or TX?
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On forward P/E (as of August 2026), NUE trades at 14.18x and TX at 7.32x, so TX is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both NUE and TX?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of NUE vs TX?
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NUE: Steel cycle volatility. Scrap input cost fluctuations. Trade policy (tariffs and quotas) affects pricing dynamics. Competition from imports during downturns. TX: Steel is cyclical and Ternium is a price taker: 2025 adjusted EBITDA fell ~24% year over year on lower prices, and the same mechanism works in reverse. Trade policy cuts both ways, because the protection helping Mexican volumes coexists with a US Section 232 tariff on steel and derivative products raised from 25% to 50% in June 2025, which has already cut shipments into the US market. The Usiminas tag-along litigation brought by CSN remains unresolved after more than a decade, with a current provision of ~$599 million on the June 2026 balance sheet and appeals still running to Brazil's Supreme Federal Tribunal. Currency swings in the Mexican peso, Brazilian real and Argentine peso move both financial results and deferred tax lines by tens of millions of dollars a quarter with no cash changing hands. Governance is concentrated: San Faustin controls ~65.0% of the shares and revised the fiscal 2025 dividend down from a proposed ~$2.70 per ADS to ~$2.20 in April 2026.
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Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell NUE or TX; figures are approximate and dated (as of August 2026). Verify current data before investing.