Ternium S.A. (TX) Stock Price & How to Invest

Ternium S.A. (NYSE: TX) makes flat steel: hot-rolled, cold-rolled, galvanized and color-coated coil sold to carmakers, appliance manufacturers, pipe makers and construction distributors across the Americas. Its industrial system runs through Ternium Mexico (mills and twelve distribution centers concentrated in Nuevo Leon, plus the Pesqueria Industrial Center), Ternium Brasil (a ~5.0 million ton slab plant in Rio de Janeiro), Ternium Argentina, and a consolidated controlling position in Usiminas, Brazil's largest flat steel producer. A second segment mines and sells iron ore in Mexico and Brazil, giving the company unusual raw material self-supply for its size. Steel shipments were ~15.1 million tons in 2025 and mining shipments ~13.0 million tons, with headcount of ~33,253 at year end.

The investment picture in August 2026 is a cyclical turning up from a bad 2025. Full-year 2025 net sales were ~$15.6 billion with adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.5 billion, a ~10% margin, hurt by falling steel prices and weak Mexican volumes during the US tariff negotiations. The second quarter of 2026 looked different: net sales of ~$4.34 billion, adjusted EBITDA of ~$717 million at a ~17% margin, and ~$1.75 of earnings per ADS, with management guiding to a further sequential increase in the third quarter. On trailing twelve-month figures the company did ~$16.0 billion of revenue, ~$2.0 billion of adjusted EBITDA and ~$3.57 per ADS attributable to parent shareholders, against a market capitalization of about ~$10.8 billion. The central question is whether the Mexican recovery reflects genuine demand behind higher import barriers, or a restocking bounce inside a market where ~$2 billion a year of capital spending still has to be absorbed.

Steel is cyclical and Ternium is a price taker: 2025 adjusted EBITDA fell ~24% year over year on lower prices, and the same mechanism works in reverse. Trade policy cuts both ways, because the protection helping Mexican volumes coexists with a US Section 232 tariff on steel and derivative products raised from 25% to 50% in June 2025, which has already cut shipments into the US market. The Usiminas tag-along litigation brought by CSN remains unresolved after more than a decade, with a current provision of ~$599 million on the June 2026 balance sheet and appeals still running to Brazil's Supreme Federal Tribunal. Currency swings in the Mexican peso, Brazilian real and Argentine peso move both financial results and deferred tax lines by tens of millions of dollars a quarter with no cash changing hands. Governance is concentrated: San Faustin controls ~65.0% of the shares and revised the fiscal 2025 dividend down from a proposed ~$2.70 per ADS to ~$2.20 in April 2026.

13 analysts publish price targets on TX, averaging $58.00 against a $55.20 price as of August 2026, or +5.1%. The published targets run from $40.00 to $78.00, a moderate spread, and the ratings split 8 buy, 5 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there have been 5 raises and 0 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full TX forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on Ternium S.A.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. Mexican import substitution. Mexico is the single largest piece of the business, at ~$4.2 billion of the ~$8.0 billion of first-half 2026 steel segment sales. The most optimistic published target, $78.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. Steel is cyclical and Ternium is a price taker: 2025 adjusted EBITDA fell ~24% year over year on lower prices, and the same mechanism works in reverse. The most pessimistic target, $40.00, is roughly what TX is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on TX, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Ternium S.A.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$16.0B
• Adjusted EBITDA (TTM): ~$2.0B (~12% margin)
• Earnings per ADS (TTM): ~$3.57
• Market capitalization: ~$10.8B
• Net debt (June 30, 2026): ~$112M
• 2026 capex guidance: ~$1.9B to ~$2.1B

At a market capitalization of ~$10.8B on ~196 million ADSs, TX trades at roughly ~15x trailing earnings per ADS and under ~1x the ~$12.3 billion of equity attributable to parent shareholders. Trailing earnings blend a weak second half of 2025 with a much stronger first half of 2026, so the multiple looks high against the current run rate and low against the 2025 trough. The balance sheet moved from ~$712 million of net cash at the end of 2025 to ~$112 million of net debt by June 2026 as capital spending and the May dividend went out the door.

Other names that sit close to TX: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get TX exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so TX sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where TX fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

Ternium is a Latin American flat steel producer trading at ~15x trailing earnings and below stated book value, where the swing factors are Mexican import protection, the Pesqueria steel shop starting up at the end of 2026, and a Brazilian court case that has sat on the balance sheet for more than a decade.

Whether TX is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is TX a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the TX stock forecast.

For income investors, whether TX pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does TX pay a dividend? And to weigh TX against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: TX vs NUE and TX vs STLD.