ONB vs SRCE: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated September 2026
Short answer
ONB is the larger of the two ($9.63B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (8.71x forward earnings, beta 0.84). SRCE is the smaller challenger ($2.04B), actually pricier on forward earnings (11.48x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.
ONB vs SRCE: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of September 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | ONB | SRCE | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $9.63B | $2.04B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 8.71 | 11.48 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 11.14 | 12.18 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 0.84 | 0.56 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 73% of range | 81% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 1.15 | 1.56 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Reading it: ONB is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.
Before you buy: how ONB and SRCE affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. ONB and SRCE share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined ONB and SRCE exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does Old National Bancorp (ONB) do?
Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) is the holding company for Old National Bank, a super-regional bank headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, with a large operational base in Chicago and a footprint concentrated across the Midwest. Following its May 2025 acquisition of Bremer Bank, the company holds roughly $70 billion in total assets and more than $30 billion in wealth assets under management, making it among the top 25 banking companies headquartered in the United States and one of the largest commercial banks in the Midwest. Like most banks, it earns money in two broad ways: net interest income, the spread between what it earns on loans and securities and what it pays on deposits (roughly $2.4 billion on a full-year 2025 basis), and noninterest fee income from wealth management, mortgage banking, treasury management, and capital markets.
What does 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) do?
1st Source Corporation is the bank holding company for 1st Source Bank, founded in 1863 and headquartered in South Bend, Indiana. It runs roughly 78 banking centers across Indiana and Michigan and manages about $9.0 billion in assets, offering commercial and consumer banking, trust and wealth advisory services, and insurance. What sets it apart from a typical community bank is its Specialty Finance Group, which lends nationally against new and used general aviation aircraft (since 1986), construction equipment, long-haul trucks, and fleets, giving it a diversified, higher-yielding loan book beyond its local footprint.
ONB vs SRCE: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- ONB drivers: Growth through acquisition and scale; Solid margin and cost discipline.
- SRCE drivers: Specialty finance differentiation; Net interest income expansion.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings. For SRCE, as a small regional bank, SRCE is highly sensitive to interest-rate changes, which affect both its net interest margin and deposit costs.
ONB or SRCE: which should you pick?
Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick ONB if you believe its drivers more; SRCE if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the ONB and SRCE guides.
ONB vs SRCE: the full fundamentals
ONB. Reading a regional bank means looking past a single earnings number to a few structural metrics. The net interest margin (around 3.65% in Q4 2025) shows how profitably the bank lends relative to its funding costs, and the efficiency ratio (an adjusted ~48.8% for 2025) measures how lean the operation is, where lower is better. Note the gap between GAAP EPS of $1.79 and adjusted EPS of $2.21, which reflects one-time merger and integration charges from the Bremer deal, so the adjusted figure is a cleaner read on underlying run-rate earnings. A trailing P/E near 13 is in the typical range for regional banks, which tend to trade at lower multiples than the broader market because their earnings are cyclical and rate-sensitive. The distinctive feature here is the growth-by-acquisition scale-up; the open question is how much of the Bremer benefit is already reflected in the share price versus still to be realized through integration.
SRCE. SRCE trades at a low double-digit price-to-earnings multiple typical of a steady regional bank, with a dividend yield of roughly 2 percent that has been rising. Record 2025 earnings of $6.41 per share and a record first quarter of 2026 (about $40 million net income, $1.63 diluted EPS) reflect margin expansion and modest loan growth. Total assets are around $9.0 billion.
Headline figures (approximate, JULY 2026): ONB shows revenue (net interest income + fees, fy2025) ~$2.9 billion, net interest income (fy2025) ~$2.4 billion, net income to common (fy2025) ~$653 million GAAP (~$809 million adjusted), diluted eps (fy2025) $1.79 GAAP ($2.21 adjusted); SRCE shows market cap ~$1.9B, net revenue (ttm, net of interest expense) ~$450M, net income (ttm) ~$155M, diluted eps (2025) ~$6.41.
The bottom line: ONB vs SRCE
ONB and SRCE are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined ONB and SRCE exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how ONB or SRCE fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in Old National Bancorp with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how ONB fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between ONB and SRCE?
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Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) is the holding company for Old National Bank, a super-regional bank headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, with a large operational base in Chicago and a footprint concentrated across the Midwest. 1st Source Corporation is the bank holding company for 1st Source Bank, founded in 1863 and headquartered in South Bend, Indiana. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is ONB or SRCE the better stock?
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Neither is universally better. ONB is the larger incumbent; SRCE is the smaller challenger and looks pricier on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, ONB or SRCE?
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On forward P/E (as of September 2026), ONB trades at 8.71x and SRCE at 11.48x, so ONB is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both ONB and SRCE?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of ONB vs SRCE?
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ONB: Old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings. As an economically cyclical regional bank, it is exposed to the credit cycle, where a recession or regional downturn would raise loan losses, particularly in commercial real estate and commercial lending that make up a meaningful part of its book. Its acquisitive strategy carries integration and execution risk, since merging Bremer's systems, staff, and customers while retaining deposits and controlling costs is not guaranteed, and future deals add more. Geographic concentration in the Midwest means regional economic weakness hits harder than for a nationally diversified bank. Finally, broader risks (deposit competition, fintech disruption, regulatory and capital requirements, and market volatility affecting its securities portfolio) can all weigh on results. SRCE: As a small regional bank, SRCE is highly sensitive to interest-rate changes, which affect both its net interest margin and deposit costs. Its specialty finance niches (aircraft, construction equipment, and trucking) are cyclical and tied to business investment, so a downturn could raise charge-offs concentrated in those segments. Geographic concentration in Indiana and Michigan exposes it to regional economic weakness. Thin trading liquidity and small-cap status can amplify price swings. Broader banking-sector stress, deposit competition, and commercial real estate credit concerns remain sector-wide overhangs.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell ONB or SRCE; figures are approximate and dated (as of September 2026). Verify current data before investing.