PGY vs UPST: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: PGY is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. PGY and UPST share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined PGY and UPST exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Pagaya Technologies is a financial-technology company that provides AI infrastructure for consumer lending. Rather than lend directly to consumers, it plugs into partners such as banks, auto lenders, and point-of-sale providers, uses machine-learning models and large datasets to underwrite applications those partners would otherwise decline, and then places the resulting loans with institutional investors through forward-flow agreements and asset-backed securitizations. That design makes Pagaya a marketplace that earns fees on network volume across three core verticals: personal loans, auto loans, and point-of-sale financing. It works with a growing roster of lending partners (roughly 30 as of early 2026, including names like Westlake in auto) and channels loans to institutional buyers, aiming to keep only limited credit exposure on its own books.

Full PGY guide

Upstart Holdings operates an AI lending marketplace. Rather than holding most loans itself, it uses machine-learning models to assess borrower risk and then connects applicants with a network of bank and credit-union partners and capital-markets investors who fund the loans. The platform began in unsecured personal loans and has expanded into auto lending, home-equity lines of credit (HELOC), and small-dollar loans, positioning Upstart as a technology layer that aims to approve more borrowers at lower loss rates than traditional FICO-based underwriting. The company argues its model improves with more data, creating a feedback loop between volume and accuracy.

Full UPST guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• PGY drivers: Network volume and partner growth; Profitability inflection.
• UPST drivers: AI underwriting accuracy and scale; Funding diversification.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The central risk is the consumer-credit cycle: Pagaya sources loans to borrowers many lenders decline, so a rise in unemployment or defaults could hurt the credit performance of loans on its network, raise funding costs, and cool institutional demand. For UPST, upstart is highly sensitive to macro and interest-rate conditions: originations, fee revenue, and profitability can contract sharply when rates rise or credit tightens, as they did in 2022 and 2023.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick PGY if you believe its drivers more; UPST if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the PGY and UPST guides.

PGY. Figures here are qualitative and tied to the asOf date; confirm live revenue, earnings, and guidance before acting. Pagaya is early in its profitable phase, so valuation is driven by expectations for future volume and margins rather than a long track record. A newly profitable, fast-growing fintech can re-rate sharply in either direction as each quarter tests whether the growth and credit performance hold, so treat point estimates with caution.

UPST. Upstart's results are cyclical and volatile. Origination volume, fee revenue, and adjusted EBITDA can move dramatically year over year with interest rates, credit conditions, and funding availability, and the company swung from a 2024 loss back to profitability in 2025 before guiding to renewed growth in 2026. Its valuation reflects high expected growth, which makes the multiple sensitive to any slowdown. The stock has seen large drawdowns and rallies within a single year. All figures are approximate, tied to the asOf date, and move with results and the share price; verify current numbers before relying on them.

Headline figures (approximate, Jul 2026): PGY shows business model Capital-light AI credit marketplace; earns fees on network volume rather than carrying most loans, 2025 profitability Reported positive full-year GAAP net income, a large swing from prior-year losses, growth trend Continued double-digit network-volume and revenue growth into early 2026 (verify latest quarter), 2026 guidance Management guided to higher network volume, revenue, and net income versus 2025 (ranges, not precise figures); UPST shows revenue (q1 2026) ~$308 million, up ~44% year over year; FY2026 guidance ~$1.4 billion, origination volume (q1 2026) ~$3.4 billion, up ~61% year over year; ~425,000 loans, adjusted ebitda (q1 2026) ~$40.5 million (~13% margin); FY2026 guidance ~$294 million, net income (fy2025) ~$54 million, swinging back to profit from a loss in 2024.

PGY and UPST are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined PGY and UPST exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.