Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Price & How to Invest

Upstart Holdings operates an AI lending marketplace. Rather than holding most loans itself, it uses machine-learning models to assess borrower risk and then connects applicants with a network of bank and credit-union partners and capital-markets investors who fund the loans. The platform began in unsecured personal loans and has expanded into auto lending, home-equity lines of credit (HELOC), and small-dollar loans, positioning Upstart as a technology layer that aims to approve more borrowers at lower loss rates than traditional FICO-based underwriting. The company argues its model improves with more data, creating a feedback loop between volume and accuracy.

Upstart makes most of its money from fees rather than interest: referral and platform fees paid by lending partners when loans are originated through its marketplace, plus loan-servicing fees. A portion of revenue and risk also comes from loans Upstart holds on its own balance sheet, which it has worked to reduce in favor of committed funding from banks, credit unions, and securitization. Founded in 2012 and public since 2020, Upstart saw originations surge in the low-rate era, then contract sharply when rates rose and funding dried up, and has more recently returned to rapid year-over-year growth as it diversified funding partners and broadened its product set.

Upstart is highly sensitive to macro and interest-rate conditions: originations, fee revenue, and profitability can contract sharply when rates rise or credit tightens, as they did in 2022 and 2023. Funding availability is a structural risk, since the marketplace only works if banks, credit unions, and capital-markets investors keep buying the loans it originates. Loans held on Upstart's own balance sheet expose it to credit losses and fair-value swings. The model's underwriting edge is unproven across a severe downturn, and a spike in unemployment or defaults could exceed its projections. Competition from other fintech lenders, banks, and incumbents is intense, and the stock has historically been extremely volatile, with large multi-month drawdowns and rallies.

15 analysts publish price targets on UPST, averaging $39.80 against a $27.44 price as of August 2026, or +45.0%. The published targets run from $20.00 to $61.00, a wide spread, and the ratings split 8 buy, 6 hold, 1 sell. Over the last six months there have been 2 raises and 4 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full UPST forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on Upstart Holdings, Inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. AI underwriting accuracy and scale. Upstart's core asset is a machine-learning model that aims to price credit risk more accurately than traditional FICO-based methods, approving more borrowers at similar or lower loss rates. The most optimistic published target, $61.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. Upstart is highly sensitive to macro and interest-rate conditions: originations, fee revenue, and profitability can contract sharply when rates rise or credit tightens, as they did in 2022 and 2023. The most pessimistic target, $20.00, is roughly what UPST is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on UPST, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (Q1 2026): ~$308 million, up ~44% year over year; FY2026 guidance ~$1.4 billion
• Origination volume (Q1 2026): ~$3.4 billion, up ~61% year over year; ~425,000 loans
• Adjusted EBITDA (Q1 2026): ~$40.5 million (~13% margin); FY2026 guidance ~$294 million
• Net income (FY2025): ~$54 million, swinging back to profit from a loss in 2024
• Market cap: ~$2.9 billion (June 2026)
• Valuation: ~50x trailing earnings and roughly 2x to 3x sales; growth-priced and rate-sensitive

Upstart's results are cyclical and volatile. Origination volume, fee revenue, and adjusted EBITDA can move dramatically year over year with interest rates, credit conditions, and funding availability, and the company swung from a 2024 loss back to profitability in 2025 before guiding to renewed growth in 2026. Its valuation reflects high expected growth, which makes the multiple sensitive to any slowdown. The stock has seen large drawdowns and rallies within a single year. All figures are approximate, tied to the asOf date, and move with results and the share price; verify current numbers before relying on them.

Other names that sit close to UPST: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get UPST exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so UPST sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where UPST fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

If you believe an AI underwriting model can price credit better than traditional FICO-based methods at scale, that Upstart can diversify its funding so origination volume is less reliant on a few partners, and that lower rates plus new products like auto and HELOC widen its market, then UPST offers concentrated exposure to AI-driven lending. That same exposure cuts both ways: results swing hard with interest rates, credit losses, and investor appetite for the loans Upstart originates, so it behaves as a high-beta, cyclical fintech rather than a steady compounder.

Whether UPST is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is UPST a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the UPST stock forecast.

For income investors, whether UPST pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does UPST pay a dividend? And to weigh UPST against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: UPST vs SOFI and UPST vs LC.