SOFI vs UPST: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: UPST is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. SOFI and UPST share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined SOFI and UPST exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

SoFi Technologies is a digital-first financial services company built around a mobile app that bundles lending, banking, investing, and credit cards, and it holds a national bank charter that lets it fund loans with lower-cost deposits. Its three reporting segments are Lending (personal, student, and home loans), Financial Services (checking and savings, SoFi Money, invest, credit card, and the Loan Platform Business that originates loans on behalf of partners), and the Technology Platform (Galileo and the Technisys core-banking stack, which provide payments and banking rails to other fintechs and brands). Total members reached roughly 14.7 million and total products about 22.2 million as of Q1 2026.

Full SOFI guide

Upstart Holdings operates an AI lending marketplace. Rather than holding most loans itself, it uses machine-learning models to assess borrower risk and then connects applicants with a network of bank and credit-union partners and capital-markets investors who fund the loans. The platform began in unsecured personal loans and has expanded into auto lending, home-equity lines of credit (HELOC), and small-dollar loans, positioning Upstart as a technology layer that aims to approve more borrowers at lower loss rates than traditional FICO-based underwriting. The company argues its model improves with more data, creating a feedback loop between volume and accuracy.

Full UPST guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• SOFI drivers: Member and product growth flywheel; Shift to fee-based, capital-light revenue.
• UPST drivers: AI underwriting accuracy and scale; Funding diversification.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: SoFi carries meaningful consumer-credit exposure, so a weaker economy or rising unemployment could lift charge-offs on personal and student loans and pressure earnings. For UPST, upstart is highly sensitive to macro and interest-rate conditions: originations, fee revenue, and profitability can contract sharply when rates rise or credit tightens, as they did in 2022 and 2023.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick SOFI if you believe its drivers more; UPST if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the SOFI and UPST guides.

SOFI. SoFi trades at a clear premium to the consumer-finance industry, where forward P/E averages closer to 10x, reflecting expectations of continued 30-percent-range revenue growth. Full-year 2026 guidance points to adjusted net revenue of roughly $4.655 billion and adjusted EPS near 60 cents. The valuation embeds strong execution, so figures should be checked against the latest filings.

UPST. Upstart's results are cyclical and volatile. Origination volume, fee revenue, and adjusted EBITDA can move dramatically year over year with interest rates, credit conditions, and funding availability, and the company swung from a 2024 loss back to profitability in 2025 before guiding to renewed growth in 2026. Its valuation reflects high expected growth, which makes the multiple sensitive to any slowdown. The stock has seen large drawdowns and rallies within a single year. All figures are approximate, tied to the asOf date, and move with results and the share price; verify current numbers before relying on them.

Headline figures (approximate, JUNE 2026): SOFI shows revenue (ttm) ~$3.9 billion, q1 2026 net revenue ~$1.1 billion (adj. +41% YoY), net income (ttm) ~$577 million, market cap ~$22 billion; UPST shows revenue (q1 2026) ~$308 million, up ~44% year over year; FY2026 guidance ~$1.4 billion, origination volume (q1 2026) ~$3.4 billion, up ~61% year over year; ~425,000 loans, adjusted ebitda (q1 2026) ~$40.5 million (~13% margin); FY2026 guidance ~$294 million, net income (fy2025) ~$54 million, swinging back to profit from a loss in 2024.

SOFI and UPST are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined SOFI and UPST exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.