nCino, Inc. (NCNO) Stock Forecast and Price Target (2026)

The average target of $23.36 sits above the $20.81 price, +12.3%. The median is $23.00, and where the two differ the median is the steadier read, because one unusually high or low target cannot drag it.

The published targets span $17.00 to $28.00. That gap is 47% of the average target, which counts as moderate disagreement. That is a fairly typical spread: enough agreement that the average means something, enough disagreement that it should not be treated as precise.

The useful move is to read the high target as one bull scenario and the low target as one bear scenario, then ask which set of assumptions you find more plausible. Both cases are worked through on the NCNO is it a buy page.

In the last six months there have been 3 raises and 8 cuts among these actions. The direction of revisions is often more telling than the level, because it shows which way informed opinion is moving.

Of the analysts with a published rating, 10 say buy, 4 say hold, and 0 say sell, so 71% carry a buy. That mix has been broadly steady over the last three months.

Read the distribution rather than the label. Sell ratings are rare across the entire market for structural reasons, so a stock with no sell ratings is unremarkable, while even a handful of them is worth understanding.

• It is a 12-month model output. An analyst picks assumptions for revenue, margin, and a multiple, and the target falls out of the arithmetic. Change one assumption and the target moves a lot.
• The distribution is skewed. Sell-side coverage carries far more buy ratings than sell ratings across the whole market, so the average is not a balanced vote.
• Targets follow price as often as they lead it. Revisions frequently arrive after a move, not before, which is why a rising target is weak evidence on its own.
• Nobody is scored on it. There is no cost to a target that never gets close, so treat accuracy as unverified unless you check the firm's record yourself.

In short: the drivers cited most often are A high-mix subscription base with a new pricing model underneath it, Cost discipline turned a loss-making platform into a cash generator, Repositioning around agentic AI in regulated banking. The risk cited most often against it is deceleration is the central problem: subscription growth has stepped down from ~14.6% in fiscal 2025 to ~11.5% in fiscal 2026 to roughly ~10% guided for fiscal 2027, and second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of ~$157.75M to ~$159.75M implies only about ~7% year-over-year growth, slower than the ~11% just reported and sequentially flat against the March quarter.

Both sides are worked through properly, with the high and low targets used as the bull and bear anchors, on the NCNO is it a buy page. This page deliberately stops at the numbers.