nCino, Inc. (NCNO) Stock Price & How to Invest

nCino sells cloud software that financial institutions use to originate and manage loans, open deposit accounts, price and analyse commercial credit, and handle mortgage workflows. The platform was built on Salesforce infrastructure and has expanded through acquisition into onboarding data (FullCircl) and integration middleware (Sandbox Banking). As of fiscal 2026 the company served over 2,700 customers, roughly 1,500 of them depository institutions, ranging from community banks and credit unions to some of the largest global banks. Concentration is low: 620 customers generated more than $100,000 in subscription revenue, 114 generated more than $1.0 million, 14 generated more than $5.0 million, and no single customer was more than 10% of revenue. Founder Pierre Naudé handed the CEO role to Sean Desmond, and the company employs about 1,684 people from Wilmington, North Carolina.

The investment picture is a business that got much more profitable while getting slower. Subscription revenue rose from ~$409.5M in fiscal 2024 to ~$469.2M in fiscal 2025 to ~$523.1M in fiscal 2026, so the growth rate stepped down from ~14.6% to ~11.5%, and about $17.3M of the fiscal 2026 figure was inorganic, putting organic subscription growth closer to ~8%. Management guides fiscal 2027 subscription revenue to ~$571.5M to ~$575.5M, roughly ~10% growth. Against that, GAAP operating margin in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 reached ~13% versus ~(1)% a year earlier, non-GAAP operating margin hit ~28%, and free cash flow was ~$80.8M in a single quarter. The stock reflects the trade: after peaking at ~$33.92 in August 2025 it bottomed at ~$13.80 in February 2026 and trades near ~$20.81, still below the ~$31 July 2020 IPO price.

Deceleration is the central problem: subscription growth has stepped down from ~14.6% in fiscal 2025 to ~11.5% in fiscal 2026 to roughly ~10% guided for fiscal 2027, and second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of ~$157.75M to ~$159.75M implies only about ~7% year-over-year growth, slower than the ~11% just reported and sequentially flat against the March quarter. Subscription revenue net retention has fallen from ~116% in fiscal 2024 to ~110% in both fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026, which means expansion inside the installed base is no longer offsetting a maturing new-logo pipeline, and management has previously attributed shortfalls to softer sales execution in Europe. GAAP profitability remains thin relative to the valuation, with roughly ~$13M of trailing twelve-month net income against ~$73.9M of fiscal 2026 stock-based compensation, so the ~28% non-GAAP operating margin and the reported GAAP margin describe quite different businesses. Demand is tied to bank and credit union technology budgets and to lending volumes, both sensitive to interest rates and credit conditions, and the platform's dependence on Salesforce infrastructure carries an ongoing user-fee cost line and a third-party dependency. Separately, plaintiff firms including Levi and Korsinsky have publicised investigations into potential securities claims following the April 2025 guidance reduction that sent the shares down about ~20% in a day; as of the quarterly report for the period ended April 30, 2026, nCino disclosed no pending proceedings it believed likely to have a material adverse effect, and no filed securities class action complaint has been identified.

11 analysts publish price targets on NCNO, averaging $23.36 against a $20.81 price as of August 2026, or +12.3%. The published targets run from $17.00 to $28.00, a moderate spread, and the ratings split 10 buy, 4 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there have been 3 raises and 8 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full NCNO forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on nCino, Inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. A high-mix subscription base with a new pricing model underneath it. Subscription revenue was ~$140.9M of ~$159.4M total revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, about ~88% of the mix, up from ~86.8% in fiscal 2025. The most optimistic published target, $28.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. Deceleration is the central problem: subscription growth has stepped down from ~14.6% in fiscal 2025 to ~11.5% in fiscal 2026 to roughly ~10% guided for fiscal 2027, and second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of ~$157.75M to ~$159.75M implies only about ~7% year-over-year growth, slower than the ~11% just reported and sequentially flat against the March quarter. The most pessimistic target, $17.00, is roughly what NCNO is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on NCNO, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see nCino, Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$610M, up ~10% year over year
• Subscription revenue (Q1 FY2027, quarter ended April 30, 2026): ~$140.9M, ~88% of total, up ~12% year over year
• Subscription revenue net retention: ~110% in fiscal 2026, versus ~110% in fiscal 2025 and ~116% in fiscal 2024
• Operating margin (Q1 FY2027): ~13% GAAP versus ~(1)% a year earlier, ~28% non-GAAP
• Free cash flow: ~$80.8M in Q1 FY2027; fiscal 2027 guidance ~$135M to ~$140M
• Market value and multiple: ~$2.28B at ~$20.81, about ~3.7x trailing sales and ~17x guided fiscal 2027 free cash flow

The gap between the two profit measures is the thing to hold onto: nCino guides to ~$166M to ~$171M of non-GAAP operating income for fiscal 2027 while trailing GAAP net income sits near ~$13M, a difference driven mostly by ~$73.9M of annual stock-based compensation plus purchased-intangible amortisation. Cash conversion is the stronger signal, since free cash flow of ~$80.8M in one quarter and a ~$135M to ~$140M full-year guide are hard to manufacture through accounting choices. On enterprise value of roughly ~$2.44B, including ~$262.8M of credit facility borrowings net of ~$102.8M of cash, the shares trade around ~4x sales, a multiple that assumes subscription growth stabilises rather than continuing to slide.

Other names that sit close to NCNO: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get NCNO exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so NCNO sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where NCNO fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

nCino has turned a decelerating SaaS business into a genuinely cash-generative one, so the case rests on whether ~9% to 10% subscription growth is a floor or a way station.

Whether NCNO is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is NCNO a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the NCNO stock forecast.

For income investors, whether NCNO pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does NCNO pay a dividend? And to weigh NCNO against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: NCNO vs QTWO and NCNO vs BLND.