Is College Worth It? College ROI Statistics (2026)

On average, a bachelor's degree still pays. Full-time workers aged 25 and over with a bachelor's degree had median weekly earnings of $1,578 in 2025, compared with $966 for those with only a high school diploma, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Their unemployment rate was 2.8%, against 4.3% for high school graduates. Multiplied over 52 weeks, the weekly gap of $612 comes to about $31,800 a year (a Walnut calculation).

The average hides a wide spread. FREOPP, a research organization that estimated returns for 53,000 degree and certificate programs, puts the median lifetime return of a bachelor's degree at $160,000 once tuition, lost earnings while in school and the chance of not finishing are counted. It also finds that 31% of students are enrolled in programs that do not pay off financially (FREOPP). The program, the school and whether the student finishes move the answer more than the decision to enroll.

Recent graduates face a softer job market than they did before 2020. The New York Fed measured unemployment of 5.2% for college graduates aged 22 to 27 in 2026:Q3, higher than the 4.0% rate for all workers, a pattern that has held every month since January 2021 (New York Fed).

New York Fed economists Jaison Abel and Richard Deitz estimate the annual rate of return on a bachelor's degree at 12.5% in 2024, which they describe as easily exceeding the threshold for a sound investment (Liberty Street Economics). In their data the median graduate with only a bachelor's degree earned about $80,000, against $47,000 for the median worker with only a high school diploma, a premium of over $32,000 a year or about 68%.

Counting tuition and the earnings given up while in school, they put the average total cost of a degree at $180,000 in 2024, up from around $140,000 in the late 1990s. Average published tuition at four-year colleges, public and private combined, was around $21,000 a year in 2024.

In a companion post the same authors find that for at least a quarter of college graduates, college does not appear to pay off, with a 2.6% rate of return at the 25th percentile in 2024. Taking extra years to finish also cuts the return: one extra year reduces it by about a quarter and two extra years by more than 40% (Liberty Street Economics).

The New York Fed tracks wages for young full-time workers, aged 22 to 27 and not in school. In 2025, the median worker with a bachelor's degree earned $60,000 and the median worker with only a high school diploma earned $40,000, both in 2025 dollars (New York Fed). The graduate earned 50% more, or $20,000 a year.

The premium has moved over time. In 1990 the gap was $58,138 against $41,893, about 39% more. By 2015 it had widened to $59,776 against $35,322, about 69% more, mostly because high school wages fell in real terms. Since then high school wages have recovered to $40,000 while the bachelor's median has stayed near $60,000, which narrowed the gap again.

A bachelor's graduate at the 25th percentile earned $45,000 in 2025, only $5,000 more than the median high school graduate, while one at the 75th percentile earned $85,000. The New York Fed notes that some of the gap may reflect differences in aptitude between people who go to college and people who do not.

Earnings rise with each level of education in the BLS figures for 2025. Workers with some college but no degree had median weekly earnings of $1,062, and associate degree holders $1,135. A master's degree was associated with $1,876, a professional degree with $2,294 and a doctorate with $2,307. Workers without a high school diploma earned $770 (BLS).

Unemployment falls in the same order, from 6.1% for workers without a diploma to 1.8% for those with a doctorate. The rate for all workers aged 25 and over was 3.4%, and their median weekly earnings were $1,268.

BLS notes that its 2025 annual figures are 11-month averages because October data were not collected during the federal government shutdown, so they are not strictly comparable with other years. The categories record only the highest degree completed and do not account for apprenticeships or on-the-job training.

Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW), a research organization, estimated median lifetime earnings for full-time, full-year workers using Census data for 2009 to 2019. A high school graduate could expect $1.6 million over a career, an associate degree holder $2 million and a bachelor's degree holder $2.8 million, which CEW describes as 75% more than with a high school diploma alone (Georgetown CEW).

Graduate degrees add more: CEW estimates $3.2 million for a master's degree, $4 million for a doctorate and $4.7 million for a professional degree such as law or medicine.

CEW also found that at least one quarter of high school graduates earn more than an associate degree holder, and one quarter of bachelor's degree holders earn more than half of workers with a master's or doctoral degree. Occupation and field change lifetime earnings as much as the level of the degree.

Each source measures a different group, so the size of the college premium depends on which one is quoted. BLS compares median weekly earnings of full-time workers aged 25 and over: $1,578 against $966, or about 63% more. The New York Fed compares young workers aged 22 to 27 with a bachelor's degree only: $60,000 against $40,000, or 50% more.

The Census Bureau's annual figures for 2025 show full-time, year-round workers aged 25 and over with a bachelor's degree or higher earning a median $92,170, against $51,480 for those with a high school diploma and no college, about 79% more (Census Bureau, P60-289). That group includes people with graduate degrees, which raises the median. FREOPP cites a 68% premium for 2022 and treats it as an upper bound, because people who go to college would probably have out-earned the median high school graduate anyway.

Household figures are larger again because they add up everyone's income in the home. The Census put median household income at $138,300 in 2025 where the householder had a bachelor's degree or more, against $60,790 for high school only. Those household numbers, and how they compare with individual earnings, are covered on the average income statistics page.

More education goes with lower unemployment. In 2025, BLS measured unemployment of 2.8% for bachelor's degree holders aged 25 and over, 3.0% for associate degree holders, 3.8% for those with some college and no degree, 4.3% for high school graduates and 6.1% for those without a diploma (BLS).

The New York Fed's monthly series shows the same gap among young workers. In September 2026, workers aged 22 to 27 without a bachelor's degree had an unemployment rate of 7.4%, against 5.2% for recent graduates of the same age. All college graduates aged 22 to 65 were at 2.8% (New York Fed).

The gap also widens in recessions. In June 2020, at the pandemic peak in the New York Fed series, unemployment reached 13.4% for recent graduates and 22.1% for young workers without a degree, against 8.1% for all college graduates.

The New York Fed's November 2, 2026 update, with data for 2026:Q3, put the unemployment rate for recent college graduates at 5.2%, its lowest level in more than a year. The rate was 5.8% a year earlier and 4.0% in September 2019 (New York Fed).

Recent graduates now have a higher unemployment rate than the workforce as a whole, which was not the case for most of the series. In 2000 recent graduates averaged 2.8% while all workers averaged 3.8%. The last month in which recent graduates had a lower rate than all workers was December 2020, and in September 2026 the gap was 5.2% against 4.0%.

Graduates further into their careers are doing better. Unemployment for all college graduates aged 22 to 65 was 2.8% in September 2026, about half the rate for recent graduates.

The New York Fed defines underemployment as working in a job that typically does not require a bachelor's degree. In 2026:Q3, 42.5% of recent graduates were underemployed, up from 41.9% a year earlier, while the rate for all college graduates was 33.7% (New York Fed).

The recent-graduate rate has stayed between 36.6% (April 2001) and 48.4% (November 1992) since 1990. It was 37.9% in January 2000 and 44.6% in January 2010, after the financial crisis. A job counts as a college job if at least half of the people doing it say a bachelor's degree is necessary.

Underemployment varies more by major than unemployment does. In 2024, 65.8% of recent criminal justice graduates and 63.9% of performing arts graduates were underemployed, against 12.8% of nursing graduates and 14.7% of aerospace engineering graduates.

FREOPP defines return on investment as the increase in lifetime earnings from a degree, minus tuition, fees, books and the earnings given up while enrolled, adjusted for the chance the student does not finish. On that measure, the median bachelor's program in engineering returns $949,000, computer science $652,000, nursing $619,000 and economics $549,000 (FREOPP).

Popular majors sit in the middle: business at $258,000 and political science at $262,000. Sociology and journalism return about $120,000 each. FREOPP finds that fine arts, a category including studio art, music and drama, usually leaves students financially worse off, and that English, education and psychology have low returns.

Returns also vary by school within a major. FREOPP finds negative returns for 13% of business programs, while the business program at the University of Virginia returns more than $3 million. At the other end, it estimates negative $540,000 for one drama program and $7.1 million for one computer engineering program. Across all bachelor's programs, 23% have a negative return and 6% have an expected value above $1 million.

The New York Fed's outcomes-by-major data for 2024 show computer engineering ($90,000), computer science ($87,000), aerospace engineering and chemical engineering ($85,000 each) with the highest early-career median wages among bachelor's graduates aged 22 to 27. Across all majors the early-career median was $58,000, rising to $87,000 at mid-career, ages 35 to 45 (New York Fed).

Several of the best-paid majors also have high unemployment. Computer engineering had a 7.8% unemployment rate for recent graduates and computer science 7.0%, among the highest of the 73 majors, alongside anthropology (7.9%) and fine arts (7.7%). Special education (0.7%), miscellaneous education (1.1%) and elementary education (1.2%) had the lowest rates, followed by agriculture (1.4%).

Education majors show the opposite pattern: low unemployment and low pay, with mid-career medians of $52,000 for early childhood education and $55,000 for elementary education. Chemical engineering had the highest mid-career median at $135,000. Pay by job title, separate from major, is covered on the income by occupation statistics page.

Starting a degree and not finishing is the outcome most likely to lose money. FREOPP estimates that the median bachelor's program returns about $343,000 for a student who finishes in four years, $275,000 in five years and $245,000 in six years, but negative $99,000 for a student who drops out, because they pay for some years of school and give up earnings without getting the degree (FREOPP).

Non-completion is common. Of first-time, full-time students who started a bachelor's degree in fall 2017, 64.5% graduated from their first school within six years: 63.4% at public colleges, 68.5% at private nonprofits and 32.3% at for-profit colleges. The rate was 92.5% at colleges admitting fewer than a quarter of applicants and 30.4% at open-admission colleges (NCES, Digest table 326.10).

At two-year colleges, 34% of students who started in fall 2017 earned a certificate or associate degree within 150% of normal time, 14% transferred and 42% left without a credential or a transfer (NCES Condition of Education). For subbaccalaureate programs (certificates and associate degrees together), FREOPP's median return falls from $170,000 with on-time completion to $18,000 once actual completion rates are counted.

Georgetown CEW's 2022 ranking of 4,500 colleges, built on College Scorecard data, found that across institutions an average of 60% of students earn more than a high school graduate 10 years after enrolling. At 1,233 institutions, 30% of the total, more than half of students earned less than a high school graduate after 10 years (Georgetown CEW).

CEW's earlier 2019 ranking found that community colleges and many certificate programs have the highest returns at the 10-year mark because they cost less and take less time, while bachelor's degrees overtake most two-year credentials over a 40-year career, and private bachelor's colleges had higher 40-year returns on average than public ones.

FREOPP's program-level results point the same way for shorter credentials. Undergraduate certificates in the technical trades have a median return of $313,000, above the median bachelor's degree, two-year nursing and health programs return $224,000, and associate degrees in liberal arts or general studies return negative $9,000. In all, 43% of associate degree programs have a negative return (FREOPP).

Graduate degrees are associated with the highest earnings in the BLS data, $1,876 a week for a master's and $2,307 for a doctorate in 2025, but their returns vary more than undergraduate ones. FREOPP finds a median return of $50,000 for a master's degree, and 43% of master's programs leave students financially worse off (FREOPP).

The MBA, one of the most common master's degrees, has a median return of $101,000 in FREOPP's estimates, but 39% of MBA programs have a negative return. Professional degrees are the strongest: the median law degree returns $470,000, and medical and dental degrees mostly return more than $1 million. FREOPP describes PhD programs as having unreliable returns.

The Fed's survey of households found the strongest self-assessed value among graduate degree holders: 86% of those aged 60 and over with a graduate or professional degree said the benefits exceeded the costs, the highest share of any group.

The College Board's Trends in College Pricing 2026 puts average published tuition and fees for 2026-27 at $12,290 for in-state students at public four-year colleges, $32,730 for out-of-state students, $46,350 at private nonprofit four-year colleges and $4,210 at public two-year colleges. After grant aid, the average net tuition and fees paid by first-time, full-time in-state students at public four-year colleges is estimated at $1,920, and $17,280 at private nonprofits (College Board).

Sticker price, net price, room and board, and how tuition has risen against inflation are covered in detail on the college tuition statistics page. Saving vehicles for those costs are covered on the 529 plan statistics page.

Debt changes how graduates rate their education. In the Federal Reserve's survey for 2023, 44% of adults with student loans who completed at least an associate degree said the benefits of their education exceeded the costs, against 68% of degree holders who had paid off their loans or never borrowed (Federal Reserve SHED).

In the Fed's survey for 2025, 16% of all adults had outstanding student loans, and 21% of those who attended at least some college. Among borrowers who were required to make payments, 73% had paid the full amount in the prior month (Federal Reserve SHED 2025). Total balances, delinquency and forgiveness are covered on the student loan debt statistics page.

The public draws the same line. In a Pew Research Center survey from late 2023, 22% of adults said a four-year degree is worth the cost even if someone has to take out loans, 47% said it is worth it only without loans, and 29% said it is not worth the cost (Pew Research Center).

Most graduates say yes. In Gallup's Alumni Survey of 5,933 graduates, conducted in November 2025, 71% agreed their degree was worth the cost. Among bachelor's graduates, 80% said the degree was critical or important to reaching their career goals, against 56% of associate degree holders, and 71% of bachelor's graduates since 2015 said they found a good job within six months (Gallup).

The Fed's 2023 survey found that 68% of adults with at least a bachelor's degree said the lifetime financial benefits of their education exceeded the costs, against 43% of associate degree holders and 28% of people who enrolled but did not complete at least an associate degree. The share rose with age: 55% of bachelor's holders aged 18 to 29, but 75% of those 60 and over (Federal Reserve SHED).

Where people studied matters too. In the same survey, 64% of degree holders from public colleges and 66% from private nonprofits said benefits exceeded costs, against 38% from for-profit colleges. Engineering graduates were the most positive, at 73%, and 35% of all respondents said they would now choose a different field of study.

Public belief in college has fallen. In Gallup's August 2026 survey, 31% of adults said a college education is very important, a record low, down from 70% in 2013, while 29% said it is not too important (Gallup). In Pew's survey from late 2023, only one in four said a four-year degree is extremely or very important for getting a well-paying job (Pew Research Center).

Confidence in higher education was 38% in June 2026, down from 42% in 2025 and 57% in 2015, according to the Lumina Foundation-Gallup survey. Republicans were at 23% and Democrats at 50%. In a new question, 46% said artificial intelligence will make a college degree less important, and 20% said more important (Gallup).

Pew found in September 2025 that seven in ten adults say higher education is headed in the wrong direction, up from 56% in 2020, and 79% say colleges do a fair or poor job of keeping tuition affordable (Pew Research Center). Degree attainment keeps rising anyway: 47% of women and 37% of men aged 25 to 34 had a bachelor's degree in 2024, up from 25% of each in 1995 (Pew Research Center).

The Federal Reserve's household survey for 2025 found that 86% of adults with at least a bachelor's degree were doing at least okay financially, compared with 41% of adults without a high school diploma. The Fed reported that the gap by education edged up in 2025, driven by a sharp decline among adults without a diploma (Federal Reserve SHED 2025).

Census figures for 2025 show the same ordering in household income: $37,090 for householders without a diploma, $60,790 for high school only, $79,880 for some college and $138,300 for a bachelor's degree or more (Census Bureau). These match the average income statistics page, which uses the same release.

The figures describe medians and averages across millions of people. FREOPP's estimates are for the typical student in each program, and the New York Fed's wage data show a $40,000 range between the 25th and 75th percentile of young bachelor's graduates. Field of study, the school, whether the degree is finished and how much was borrowed all show up in the data as large differences in the financial result.

A degree's payoff arrives as higher earnings spread over a 40-year career, which is also where saving and investing happen. Walnut, an AI investing app, can read a connected brokerage account to show how that money is doing.