Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Stock Price & How to Invest

Amplitude, Inc. sells a cloud platform that shows companies how people use their digital products. A team at a bank, a streaming service or a retailer drops Amplitude's code into its app or website, and the software records events such as sign-ups, clicks and purchases, then turns them into funnels, retention curves and cohort charts. Around that core analytics product it now sells experimentation and feature flags, session replay, guides and surveys, a customer data platform, and a set of AI agents that watch dashboards and flag changes on their own. The company was founded in 2011 by Spenser Skates (still CEO), Curtis Liu and Jeffrey Wang, listed on Nasdaq through a direct listing in 2021, and has ~780 employees and more than 5,200 paying customers.

The last two quarters changed the growth picture. Revenue for full-year 2025 was ~$343 million, up 15%. In the second quarter of 2026 (reported August 5), revenue reached ~$100.9 million, up 21%, and annual recurring revenue (ARR) hit ~$410 million, up 22%. About $17 million of that ARR came from Statsig, the experimentation platform OpenAI bought in 2025 whose commercial customers and brand Amplitude took over in a May 2026 partnership. Remaining performance obligations rose 35% to ~$483 million and customers paying over $100,000 a year grew 30% to 824. The cost side moved the other way: non-GAAP gross margin slipped to ~71% on AI inference, hosting and Statsig integration costs, and the GAAP operating loss widened to ~$35 million.

The investment picture is a sharp turn in sentiment. The stock fell to ~$5.51 in April and closed at ~$5.91 on May 7 after a first-quarter report that cut profit guidance. It then nearly tripled into late October, helped by the Statsig deal, the Q2 acceleration, heavy buybacks (~$89 million in the first half) and price-target increases from BTIG and BofA. At ~$17.24 and ~124.9 million shares, the market cap is ~$2.15 billion and the enterprise value about ~$2.0 billion, roughly 5x 2026 revenue guidance. Third-quarter results arrive on November 4, 2026.

Valuation risk is now the obvious one: the shares moved from ~$5.51 in April to ~$17 in October, so a soft November print or cautious 2027 commentary could reverse part of that quickly, as the 21% one-day drop on May 7, 2026 showed. Organic growth is harder to read because Statsig flatters ARR; strip out its ~$17 million and the underlying business grew closer to the high teens. Gross margin has fallen into the ~68% to 71% range on hosting, inference and integration costs, and if AI usage keeps rising faster than pricing, profitability guidance could be cut again, which is what happened in May. Competition is intense from free and cheap tools (Google Analytics, PostHog), from enterprise suites (Adobe, Contentsquare), and from warehouse-native analytics built on Snowflake and Databricks. Large language models also threaten to commoditize dashboarding itself. GAAP losses (~$35 million last quarter) rely on heavy stock compensation, insiders including the CEO's household have been selling under 10b5-1 plans, and a law firm announced an investigation after the May drop, although no 2026 class action complaint had been found as of October 2026.

11 analysts publish price targets on AMPL, averaging $15.36 against a $17.27 price as of October 2026, or -11.1%. The published targets run from $11.00 to $19.00, a moderate spread, and the ratings split 9 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there have been 11 raises and 0 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full AMPL forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on Amplitude, Inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. Statsig and the experimentation upsell. The May 2026 partnership with OpenAI handed Amplitude Statsig's brand, its commercial customer base and responsibility for running and developing the platform, while the original Statsig team stayed at OpenAI. The most optimistic published target, $19.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. Valuation risk is now the obvious one: the shares moved from ~$5.51 in April to ~$17 in October, so a soft November print or cautious 2027 commentary could reverse part of that quickly, as the 21% one-day drop on May 7, 2026 showed. The most pessimistic target, $11.00, is roughly what AMPL is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on AMPL, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Amplitude, Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$374M
• ARR (Q2 2026): ~$410M (+22%)
• Market cap: ~$2.15B
• Share price: ~$17.24
• EV / 2026 revenue guide: ~4.9x
• Free cash flow (Q2 2026): ~$23.7M

Amplitude has no meaningful GAAP earnings, so revenue multiples carry the valuation. Subtracting ~$161 million of cash and securities from a ~$2.15 billion market cap gives an enterprise value of ~$2.0 billion, about ~4.9x the ~$409 million midpoint of 2026 revenue guidance and ~5.3x trailing revenue. That is up from roughly 1.5x to 2x in April, when the stock sat near $6. Non-GAAP EPS guidance of ~$0.06 to $0.08 for 2026 implies a forward multiple above 200x, so the price rests on growth and cash flow, not current earnings.

Other names that sit close to AMPL: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get AMPL exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so AMPL sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where AMPL fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

Amplitude is a mid-sized analytics software company whose growth has picked up to ~21%, helped by taking over Statsig's customers. After a near tripling since April, the valuation leaves less room for disappointment.

Whether AMPL is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is AMPL a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the AMPL stock forecast.

For income investors, whether AMPL pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does AMPL pay a dividend? And to weigh AMPL against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: AMPL vs DDOG and AMPL vs ADBE.