Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) Stock Price & How to Invest

Astrana Health trades on Nasdaq under ASTH and was known as Apollo Medical Holdings (AMEH) until the 2024 rebrand. The company organizes independent physicians into risk-bearing networks and then contracts with health plans on a capitated basis, meaning it accepts a fixed per-member payment and keeps the difference if it can manage care for less. The business reports in three segments: Care Partners, the risk-bearing network arm that produces the large majority of revenue; Care Delivery, the owned and affiliated clinics; and Care Enablement, the technology and management-services platform that the networks run on. The membership base skews heavily toward Medicare Advantage, with Medicaid, commercial and ACO REACH or Medicare Shared Savings lives filling out the rest, and the geographic footprint is still concentrated in California even after expansion into Nevada, Texas and other states.

Scale has arrived quickly. Revenue grew from ~$1.39 billion in fiscal 2023 to ~$3.18 billion in fiscal 2025 and ~$3.84 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis, helped substantially by the Prospect Health acquisition that closed in 2025 and added both membership and roughly $700 million of debt. Q2 2026, reported August 6, 2026, showed revenue of ~$972.5 million (up ~49%) and adjusted EBITDA of ~$68.9 million (up ~43%), and management raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to ~$255 million to ~$280 million against reaffirmed revenue of ~$3.8 billion to ~$4.1 billion. The catch is what that revenue converts into: gross profit of ~$402 million on ~$3.84 billion of revenue is roughly a 10% gross margin, and operating income of ~$100 million is under 3%. In a capitated model almost all of that spread is medical cost, so utilization trend, not sales growth, is what decides the outcome.

The core risk is structural: with operating margin under 3%, a modest increase in medical cost trend or utilization can erase profitability across the capitated book, and 2023 through 2025 already showed net income falling from ~$60.7 million to ~$22.5 million even as revenue more than doubled. Leverage compounds this, with total debt of ~$979 million against ~$401 million of cash after the Prospect transaction, so integration missteps land on a balance sheet with less slack than before. Concentration is real on two axes, geography (California remains the dominant market) and counterparty (a small number of health plans account for a large share of revenue, and contract renegotiation or non-renewal would be material). Regulatory exposure runs in several directions at once: CMS rate notices and the v28 risk-adjustment phase-in set the revenue baseline, federal scrutiny of Medicare Advantage risk-adjustment coding continues industry-wide, and California legislation targeting management-services organizations and the corporate practice of medicine could reach Astrana's structure directly. Separately, an employment class action alleging meal and rest period violations (Case No. 26STCV21467, Los Angeles County Superior Court) is pending against Astrana Health Management; it is a wage-and-hour matter rather than a securities case, and no filed securities-fraud class action was identified as of August 2026.

8 analysts publish price targets on ASTH, averaging $50.50 against a $35.76 price as of August 2026, or +41.2%. The published targets run from $41.00 to $65.00, a moderate spread, and the ratings split 9 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there have been 11 raises and 0 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full ASTH forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on Astrana Health Inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. The shift toward full-risk contracts. Astrana has been steadily moving members from shared-savings and partial-risk arrangements into full-risk capitation, which is what drove adjusted EBITDA up ~43% in Q2 2026 on ~49% revenue growth. The most optimistic published target, $65.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. The core risk is structural: with operating margin under 3%, a modest increase in medical cost trend or utilization can erase profitability across the capitated book, and 2023 through 2025 already showed net income falling from ~$60.7 million to ~$22.5 million even as revenue more than doubled. The most pessimistic target, $41.00, is roughly what ASTH is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on ASTH, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Astrana Health Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Market cap: ~$1.76B
• Revenue (TTM): ~$3.84B, up ~59% year over year
• Net income (TTM): ~$40.6M, EPS ~$0.82
• Trailing P/E: ~44x, forward P/E ~22x
• Most recent quarter (Q2 2026): Revenue ~$972.5M (up ~49%), adjusted EBITDA ~$68.9M (up ~43%)
• Balance sheet: ~$979M total debt against ~$401M cash and investments

The valuation gap between a ~44x trailing multiple and a ~22x forward multiple is the whole debate in one number: it prices in the raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of ~$255 million to ~$280 million actually landing. Note also that market cap of ~$1.76 billion sits at less than half of trailing revenue, which is normal for capitated healthcare because the company books the full premium dollar as revenue while keeping only a thin slice. Comparing ASTH on price-to-sales against a software or device company is therefore misleading; margin and cash conversion are the relevant lenses.

Other names that sit close to ASTH: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get ASTH exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so ASTH sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where ASTH fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

Astrana is a genuinely profitable, fast-scaling value-based care operator whose ~2.6% operating margin means small moves in medical cost trend swing earnings far more than the headline revenue growth suggests.

Whether ASTH is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is ASTH a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the ASTH stock forecast.

For income investors, whether ASTH pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does ASTH pay a dividend? And to weigh ASTH against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: ASTH vs AGL and ASTH vs UNH.