ADP vs NSP: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. ADP and NSP share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined ADP and NSP exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is a Roseland, New Jersey-based global technology company providing cloud-based human capital management (HCM) and payroll solutions to businesses of every size, from single-employee firms using ADP RUN to large multinationals using ADP Workforce Now and Lyric. The company operates through two primary segments: Employer Services, which covers payroll processing, tax filing, benefits administration, talent management, time and attendance, and compliance; and Professional Employer Organization (PEO) Services, under the ADP TotalSource brand, which co-employs client workers to deliver Fortune 500-level benefits packages to smaller firms. ADP also earns a meaningful stream of interest income by holding and investing the client funds it collects between payroll runs before remitting them to employees and tax authorities. Founded in 1949 by Henry Taub and Frank Lautenberg as a manual payroll processor and taken public in 1961, ADP pioneered computerized payroll in the 1960s and grew through decades of acquisitions and organic expansion into its present position as the market leader in global payroll software with roughly 9.9% market share. The company is led by President and CEO Maria Black, who took the helm in 2023, and employs approximately 67,000 people worldwide. ADP's fiscal year ends June 30, and its shares trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker ADP.

Full ADP guide

Insperity is one of the largest professional employer organizations (PEOs) in the United States. Under a co-employment arrangement, a client business keeps running its operations while Insperity becomes the employer of record for payroll, payroll taxes, workers' compensation and, most importantly, health insurance, which it buys at scale through a large-group plan with UnitedHealthcare. Clients pay a bundled fee per worksite employee (WSEE), and because that fee includes the gross cost of wages and benefits, reported revenue of ~$6.9 billion over the trailing twelve months is far larger than the economic value Insperity keeps. The number that matters is gross profit, ~$0.9 billion in 2025, which is essentially the spread between what clients pay for benefits and services and what claims and insurance actually cost.

Full NSP guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• ADP drivers: Sticky recurring revenue and elite client retention; AI-powered platform evolution expanding wallet share.
• NSP drivers: Benefits pricing versus claim cost trend; HRScale and the Workday partnership.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: ADP's growth is materially sensitive to employment levels and interest rates: a recession that raises unemployment reduces the headcount on which per-employee fees are charged, crimps new-business bookings, and may accelerate small-business client failures, while falling rates shrink the float income earned on client funds held between payroll cycles. For NSP, the central risk is health-care cost inflation.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick ADP if you believe its drivers more; NSP if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the ADP and NSP guides.

ADP. At $287.25, ADP trades near 26x trailing GAAP earnings and about 21x forward estimates, up from roughly 20x in mid-2026 and closer to its five-year average near 29-30x after a 17% three-month rally. Consensus for fiscal 2027 is about $23.2 billion of revenue and $12.26 of EPS, roughly 10% growth. The October 28, 2026 report is the first read on whether that pace is holding.

NSP. Headline revenue overstates Insperity's scale because it includes client payroll and benefit costs passed through the PEO, so the market cap of ~$2.05 billion looks tiny against ~$6.9 billion of sales. A fairer lens is enterprise value against adjusted EBITDA: at roughly ~$2.4 billion including credit facility debt, the stock trades near ~11x to ~13x the 2026 guidance range. That is a premium to its own depressed 2025 base but below where it traded before the claims shock. Forward P/E of ~23x assumes the recovery continues; the earnings base is still thin enough that small changes in claim trend swing EPS sharply.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): ADP shows revenue (fy2026, ended june 30, 2026) ~$22.0 billion (+~7%), net income (fy2026) ~$4.4 billion, adjusted diluted eps (fy2026, sum of quarters) ~$11.12, operating margin (gaap, ttm) ~23.5%; NSP shows revenue (ttm) ~$6.9 billion (Q2 2026 ~$1.69 billion, up ~2% year over year), net income (ttm) ~-$16 million GAAP loss (Q2 2026 net income ~$4 million), adjusted eps (2026 guidance) ~$1.88 to ~$2.43 (2025 actual ~$1.03), adjusted ebitda (2026 guidance) ~$185 million to ~$225 million (2025 ~$131 million).

ADP and NSP are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined ADP and NSP exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.