Insperity, Inc. (NSP) Stock Price & How to Invest

Insperity is one of the largest professional employer organizations (PEOs) in the United States. Under a co-employment arrangement, a client business keeps running its operations while Insperity becomes the employer of record for payroll, payroll taxes, workers' compensation and, most importantly, health insurance, which it buys at scale through a large-group plan with UnitedHealthcare. Clients pay a bundled fee per worksite employee (WSEE), and because that fee includes the gross cost of wages and benefits, reported revenue of ~$6.9 billion over the trailing twelve months is far larger than the economic value Insperity keeps. The number that matters is gross profit, ~$0.9 billion in 2025, which is essentially the spread between what clients pay for benefits and services and what claims and insurance actually cost.

That spread is where 2025 went wrong. Large medical claims, specialty pharmacy and outpatient costs ran well ahead of pricing, gross profit fell ~14% for the year, and Q4 2025 produced a ~$33 million net loss and negative adjusted EBITDA. The stock collapsed to ~$18.57 in March 2026. Management responded with a margin recovery plan: higher pricing at renewal, pruning of unprofitable clients, new contract terms and plan design changes with UnitedHealthcare, and cost cuts that brought Q2 2026 operating expenses down ~8%. Results have since stabilized. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of ~$1.31 beat estimates, and Q2 2026 revenue rose ~2% to ~$1.69 billion while adjusted EPS climbed ~31% to ~$0.34 and adjusted EBITDA rose ~13% to ~$36 million. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for adjusted EPS of ~$1.88 to ~$2.43 and adjusted EBITDA of ~$185 million to ~$225 million. On October 22, 2026 the shares rose ~7% intraday to ~$53.70, close to their 52-week high of ~$55.90; we found no deal, filing or company announcement behind the move, which looks like positioning ahead of Q3 results on October 29 and follow-through from the October 15 launch of an HR360 AI agent. The investment picture now rests on whether recovered margins hold through the January 2027 benefits renewal and whether HRScale restarts WSEE growth, which is still running ~1% to ~2% negative.

The central risk is health-care cost inflation. Insperity effectively underwrites the medical costs of its clients' employees, so a rise in large claims, GLP-1 and specialty drug utilization, or hospital pricing can erase a year of margin in a single quarter, as Q4 2025 showed. Pricing up to recover that margin risks driving away the healthiest, most price-sensitive clients, leaving a worse risk pool behind (adverse selection). Unit growth is negative, and a slowdown in small-business hiring or a recession would shrink WSEE counts further. HRScale may take longer to sell than planned, and Workday could favor other partners or build its own services, leaving Insperity with sunk costs. Competition is intense from TriNet, ADP TotalSource and Paychex on price, and from software platforms like Rippling and Gusto that offer cheaper PEO-lite bundles. The balance sheet is tighter than it was, with ~$420 million of credit facility borrowings and a dividend that is larger than current GAAP earnings, so a cut is plausible if recovery stalls. Guidance ranges are unusually wide (Q3 adjusted EPS of ~-$0.09 to ~$0.41), which reflects real uncertainty, and the stock has more than doubled from its March low, so expectations into the October 29 report are higher than they were.

4 analysts publish price targets on NSP, averaging $51.75 against a $53.67 price as of October 2026, or -3.6%. The published targets run from $38.00 to $61.00, a moderate spread, and the ratings split 1 buy, 3 hold, 1 sell. Over the last six months there has been 1 raise and 1 cut among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full NSP forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on Insperity, Inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. Benefits pricing versus claim cost trend. Insperity's profit is mostly the gap between what it charges clients for health coverage and what the plan pays out. The most optimistic published target, $61.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. The central risk is health-care cost inflation. The most pessimistic target, $38.00, is roughly what NSP is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on NSP, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Insperity, Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$6.9 billion (Q2 2026 ~$1.69 billion, up ~2% year over year)
• Net income (TTM): ~-$16 million GAAP loss (Q2 2026 net income ~$4 million)
• Adjusted EPS (2026 guidance): ~$1.88 to ~$2.43 (2025 actual ~$1.03)
• Adjusted EBITDA (2026 guidance): ~$185 million to ~$225 million (2025 ~$131 million)
• P/E (forward): ~23x (trailing not meaningful on a GAAP loss)
• Market cap and dividend: ~$2.05 billion (stock ~$53.70 on Oct 22); ~4.5% yield ($2.40 a year)

Headline revenue overstates Insperity's scale because it includes client payroll and benefit costs passed through the PEO, so the market cap of ~$2.05 billion looks tiny against ~$6.9 billion of sales. A fairer lens is enterprise value against adjusted EBITDA: at roughly ~$2.4 billion including credit facility debt, the stock trades near ~11x to ~13x the 2026 guidance range. That is a premium to its own depressed 2025 base but below where it traded before the claims shock. Forward P/E of ~23x assumes the recovery continues; the earnings base is still thin enough that small changes in claim trend swing EPS sharply.

Other names that sit close to NSP: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get NSP exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so NSP sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where NSP fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

NSP is a recovery bet on whether Insperity can price ahead of rising health-care costs and turn its Workday-built HRScale product into renewed worksite-employee growth, while funding a ~4.5% dividend from thin earnings.

Whether NSP is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is NSP a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the NSP stock forecast.

For income investors, whether NSP pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does NSP pay a dividend? And to weigh NSP against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: NSP vs TNET and NSP vs ADP.