BHP vs MLI: How BHP Group and Mueller Industries Compare (2026)
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
BHP is the larger of the two ($210.34B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (16.99x forward earnings, beta 0.83). MLI is the smaller challenger ($14.49B), priced similarly on forward earnings (14.96x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.
BHP vs MLI: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of July 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | BHP | MLI | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $210.34B | $14.49B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 16.99 | 14.96 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 20.60 | 17.06 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 0.83 | 1.12 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 75% of range | 82% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 4.17 | 4.08 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Before you buy: how BHP and MLI affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. BHP and MLI share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined BHP and MLI exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does BHP Group (BHP) do?
BHP Group is a global diversified resources company headquartered in Australia and dual-listed, with a US ADR trading on the NYSE under BHP. Its core businesses are Western Australia iron ore (the largest earnings contributor historically and among the lowest-cost in the world), copper (mines including Escondida in Chile plus operations in Australia and the Americas), metallurgical coal, and a growing potash business anchored by the Jansen project in Canada. BHP reports on an Australian fiscal year ending June 30 and reports in US dollars; in FY2025 revenue was around $51 billion with underlying EBITDA near $26 billion at roughly a 53% margin.
What does Mueller Industries (MLI) do?
Mueller Industries, headquartered in Collierville, Tennessee, is an industrial holding company that manufactures copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products sold into plumbing, HVAC, refrigeration, oil and gas, medical, aerospace, and automotive end markets. The company operates through three reportable segments: Piping Systems (the largest, generating approximately 65-67% of revenue from copper tubes, fittings, line sets, valves, and related products sold to plumbing wholesalers, building material retailers, and OEMs), Industrial Metals (brass rod, copper bar, wire, and impact extrusions), and Climate (components for temperature-control systems, including twisted tubes, coaxial heat exchangers, and refrigeration valves). Manufacturing and distribution operations span North America, the United Kingdom, Canada, Asia, and the Middle East, with joint ventures in South Korea and Bahrain. The company traces its operational roots to 1917 and is listed on the NYSE under the ticker MLI. Gregory L. Christopher serves as Chairman and CEO, and under his leadership the company has executed a disciplined acquisition strategy, including Nehring Electrical Works and Elkhart Products in 2024, and Bison Metals Technologies in March 2026, all aimed at expanding nonferrous manufacturing capacity. MLI completed a 2-for-1 stock split effective July 1, 2026. The shareholder base is primarily institutional, with no single controlling shareholder.
BHP vs MLI: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- BHP drivers: Copper as the growth engine; Low-cost iron ore cash engine.
- MLI drivers: Structural demand from HVAC and electrification; Tariff-driven onshoring of copper manufacturing.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: BHP's earnings are highly sensitive to iron ore and copper prices, which are driven by Chinese property and steel demand, global growth, and supply from rivals. For MLI, mueller's revenue and margins are sensitive to U.S.
BHP or MLI: which should you pick?
Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick BHP if you believe its drivers more; MLI if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the BHP and MLI guides.
BHP vs MLI: the full fundamentals
BHP. BHP reports on an Australian fiscal year ending June 30 and reports in US dollars. FY2025 revenue fell about 8% to roughly $51 billion on lower iron ore and coal prices, even as copper reached a record. The variable dividend and cyclical earnings mean valuation multiples and yield shift with the commodity cycle rather than staying fixed.
MLI. MLI's trailing P/E of approximately 17x sits well below the U.S. Machinery sector average and its direct peer group, which has historically traded at 25-33x, suggesting the market applies a discount that may reflect cyclicality concerns around copper pricing and construction exposure. The 29% gross margin is materially above the company's own 10-year historical average and above the level that many analysts consider fully sustainable into a normalized cycle. The near-zero-debt balance sheet and approximately $1.4 billion in cash give the company exceptional financial flexibility and downside cushion that is unusual among comparably sized industrials.
Headline figures (approximate, JULY 2026): BHP shows revenue (fy2025) ~$51 billion, underlying ebitda (fy2025) ~$26 billion (~53% margin), market capitalization ~$205 billion, dividend yield (adr) ~3.3% to 3.5%; MLI shows revenue (full year 2025) ~$4.18 billion, revenue (ttm, as of q1 2026) ~$4.37 billion, net income (full year 2025) ~$765 million, diluted eps (full year 2025) ~$6.86.
The bottom line: BHP vs MLI
BHP and MLI are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined BHP and MLI exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Investing in BHP Group with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how BHP fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between BHP and MLI?
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BHP Group is a global diversified resources company headquartered in Australia and dual-listed, with a US ADR trading on the NYSE under BHP. Mueller Industries, headquartered in Collierville, Tennessee, is an industrial holding company that manufactures copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products sold into plumbing, HVAC, refrigeration, oil and gas, medical, aerospace, and automotive end markets. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is BHP or MLI the better stock?
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Neither is universally better. BHP is the larger incumbent; MLI is the smaller challenger and looks cheaper on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, BHP or MLI?
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On forward P/E (as of July 2026), BHP trades at 16.99x and MLI at 14.96x, so MLI is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both BHP and MLI?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of BHP vs MLI?
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BHP: BHP's earnings are highly sensitive to iron ore and copper prices, which are driven by Chinese property and steel demand, global growth, and supply from rivals. A downturn in commodity prices compresses margins and reduces the variable dividend, so income is not guaranteed. Large projects such as Jansen carry execution, cost-overrun and timing risk, and Escondida faces natural grade decline and water and labor constraints in Chile. The company also faces regulatory, environmental and community risks across many jurisdictions, plus legacy liabilities such as the Samarco dam-failure litigation in Brazil. As an ADR, US holders also take on currency and dividend-withholding considerations. MLI: Mueller's revenue and margins are sensitive to U.S. residential and commercial construction cycles, and a sustained housing downturn driven by elevated mortgage rates or a broader recession could materially reduce volumes and pricing power. Copper is the primary raw material, and rapid copper price swings can produce significant mark-to-market hedge losses in a single quarter, as demonstrated by an $18.2 million unrealized hedge loss in Q4 2025, distorting reported earnings. Gross margins near 29% are meaningfully above the company's own historical averages and could normalize or compress if copper prices moderate, competitive dynamics shift, or the mix of acquired businesses dilutes the profitability of legacy operations. Tariff policy uncertainty adds a two-sided risk: tariffs currently benefit domestic producers but could trigger broader trade retaliation, cost-push inflation, or demand destruction if they weigh on construction activity.
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Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell BHP or MLI; figures are approximate and dated (as of July 2026). Verify current data before investing.