BHP vs MT: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: MT is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. BHP and MT share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined BHP and MT exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

BHP Group is a global diversified resources company headquartered in Australia and dual-listed, with a US ADR trading on the NYSE under BHP. Its core businesses are Western Australia iron ore (the largest earnings contributor historically and among the lowest-cost in the world), copper (mines including Escondida in Chile plus operations in Australia and the Americas), metallurgical coal, and a growing potash business anchored by the Jansen project in Canada. BHP reports on an Australian fiscal year ending June 30 and reports in US dollars. For FY2026 (the year to June 30, 2026, reported in August), revenue rose about 15% to roughly $58.8 billion and net income was about $9.8 billion, up from about $51.3 billion and $9.0 billion in FY2025.

Full BHP guide

ArcelorMittal is a Luxembourg-headquartered, US-listed steel and mining producer that operates across Europe, the Americas, Asia, and Africa, making flat and long steel products for the automotive, construction, packaging, and appliance markets and mining its own iron ore. It is the largest steel producer outside China, and its results are reported through regional segments plus a separately disclosed 'India and JVs' segment (reflecting AMNS India, VAMA, and AMNS Calvert) and a newer capital-light 'Sustainable Solutions' segment. Steel is a commodity, so the company competes largely on cost, scale, product mix, and proximity to customers rather than on pricing power.

Full MT guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• BHP drivers: Copper as the growth engine; Low-cost iron ore cash engine.
• MT drivers: Steel cycle and pricing; Strategic growth projects.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: BHP's earnings are highly sensitive to iron ore and copper prices, which are driven by Chinese property and steel demand, global growth, and supply from rivals. For MT, as a commodity cyclical, MT can see revenue and profit fall sharply when steel prices, iron ore, or demand roll over, and its earnings are far less predictable than those of an average large-cap.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick BHP if you believe its drivers more; MT if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the BHP and MT guides.

BHP. BHP reports on an Australian fiscal year ending June 30 and reports in US dollars. FY2026 revenue recovered about 15% to roughly $58.8 billion after the prior year's 8% decline, while consensus looks for FY2027 EPS of about $4.68, roughly 10% lower. At about 22 times trailing and 18 times forward earnings, the shares trade above their earlier mid-teens multiple after a 50% one-year rally, and the variable dividend means the yield shifts with the cycle rather than staying fixed.

MT. Trailing net income of about $1.8 billion is down roughly 62% year over year, which pushes the trailing P/E to about 27x, while the forward P/E of about 9x rests on consensus 2027 EPS of about $7.10. That gap is typical for a cyclical priced on an expected recovery, and it means the valuation is only as cheap as the 2027 steel cycle turns out to be. The base dividend of $0.60 per share yields a little under 1%.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): BHP shows revenue (fy2026) ~$58.8 billion (up ~15%), net income (fy2026) ~$9.8 billion (~17% margin), ebitda (ttm) ~$30 billion, market capitalization ~$215 billion; MT shows revenue (ttm) ~$62.9 billion, revenue growth (latest quarter, yoy) ~+5%, net income (ttm) ~$1.8 billion, ebitda (ttm) ~$5.5 billion.

BHP and MT are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined BHP and MT exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.