BHP vs MOS: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: MOS is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. BHP and MOS share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined BHP and MOS exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

BHP Group is a global diversified resources company headquartered in Australia and dual-listed, with a US ADR trading on the NYSE under BHP. Its core businesses are Western Australia iron ore (the largest earnings contributor historically and among the lowest-cost in the world), copper (mines including Escondida in Chile plus operations in Australia and the Americas), metallurgical coal, and a growing potash business anchored by the Jansen project in Canada. BHP reports on an Australian fiscal year ending June 30 and reports in US dollars. For FY2026 (the year to June 30, 2026, reported in August), revenue rose about 15% to roughly $58.8 billion and net income was about $9.8 billion, up from about $51.3 billion and $9.0 billion in FY2025.

Full BHP guide

The Mosaic Company is a leading global producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash, the two primary crop nutrients it mines, processes, and distributes to farmers and dealers worldwide. Its business runs across three reporting segments: Phosphates (finished phosphate fertilizers plus premium products like MicroEssentials), Potash (potassium fertilizer from mines in Saskatchewan, New Mexico, and elsewhere), and Mosaic Fertilizantes, a large Brazil-based production and distribution arm that now drives roughly a third of the company's business. Mosaic sells into agriculture, where nutrient demand is tied to planted acreage, crop prices, and farmer economics.

Full MOS guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• BHP drivers: Copper as the growth engine; Low-cost iron ore cash engine.
• MOS drivers: Global crop-nutrient demand; Potash and Esterhazy productivity.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: BHP's earnings are highly sensitive to iron ore and copper prices, which are driven by Chinese property and steel demand, global growth, and supply from rivals. For MOS, mosaic is a cyclical commodity producer, so its earnings can swing dramatically with potash and phosphate prices and are exposed to sharp input-cost inflation in sulfur, ammonia, and natural gas.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick BHP if you believe its drivers more; MOS if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the BHP and MOS guides.

BHP. BHP reports on an Australian fiscal year ending June 30 and reports in US dollars. FY2026 revenue recovered about 15% to roughly $58.8 billion after the prior year's 8% decline, while consensus looks for FY2027 EPS of about $4.68, roughly 10% lower. At about 22 times trailing and 18 times forward earnings, the shares trade above their earlier mid-teens multiple after a 50% one-year rally, and the variable dividend means the yield shifts with the cycle rather than staying fixed.

MOS. Mosaic trades at about ~0.5x sales and ~0.5x book value, levels typical of a commodity producer near a cyclical low, and the trailing P/E is not meaningful because of the ~$639 million trailing loss. The ~12x forward multiple assumes earnings recover toward ~$1.52 per share in 2027. The ~$26 average analyst target sits well above the October 16 close, but several targets were cut in October 2026 as input-cost pressure persisted.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): BHP shows revenue (fy2026) ~$58.8 billion (up ~15%), net income (fy2026) ~$9.8 billion (~17% margin), ebitda (ttm) ~$30 billion, market capitalization ~$215 billion; MOS shows revenue (ttm) ~$12.25 billion, q2 2026 revenue ~$2.82 billion (down ~6% YoY), net income (ttm) ~$639 million net loss, forward p/e ~12x (trailing not meaningful).

BHP and MOS are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined BHP and MOS exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.