BHP vs RIO: How BHP Group and Rio Tinto Compare (2026)
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
BHP is the larger of the two ($210.34B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (16.99x forward earnings, beta 0.83). RIO is the smaller challenger ($150.59B), cheaper on forward earnings (10.62x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.
BHP vs RIO: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of July 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | BHP | RIO | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $210.34B | $150.59B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 16.99 | 10.62 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 20.60 | 15.23 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 0.83 | 0.65 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 75% of range | 63% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 4.17 | 2.42 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Reading it: RIO is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.
Before you buy: how BHP and RIO affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. BHP and RIO share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined BHP and RIO exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does BHP Group (BHP) do?
BHP Group is a global diversified resources company headquartered in Australia and dual-listed, with a US ADR trading on the NYSE under BHP. Its core businesses are Western Australia iron ore (the largest earnings contributor historically and among the lowest-cost in the world), copper (mines including Escondida in Chile plus operations in Australia and the Americas), metallurgical coal, and a growing potash business anchored by the Jansen project in Canada. BHP reports on an Australian fiscal year ending June 30 and reports in US dollars; in FY2025 revenue was around $51 billion with underlying EBITDA near $26 billion at roughly a 53% margin.
What does Rio Tinto (RIO) do?
Rio Tinto is a global mining group that digs, processes, and ships the raw materials behind steel, power grids, and batteries. Iron ore from its Pilbara operations in Western Australia is still the profit engine, generating the majority of earnings, while the company also produces aluminum and bauxite, copper (including from the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia), and, after its 2025 acquisition of Arcadium, lithium. Its two marquee growth projects are the giant Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea, which made its first shipment in late 2025, and a lithium business it aims to scale toward 200,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2028. RIO shares are American Depositary Receipts representing the London-listed Rio Tinto plc, so U.S. investors get the same underlying economics with dollar-denominated trading.
BHP vs RIO: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- BHP drivers: Copper as the growth engine; Low-cost iron ore cash engine.
- RIO drivers: Iron ore scale plus Simandou; Copper growth for electrification.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: BHP's earnings are highly sensitive to iron ore and copper prices, which are driven by Chinese property and steel demand, global growth, and supply from rivals. For RIO, rio's fortunes are tightly linked to iron ore prices, which hinge on Chinese steel demand and property construction, so a slowdown there hits earnings and the dividend directly.
BHP or RIO: which should you pick?
Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick BHP if you believe its drivers more; RIO if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the BHP and RIO guides.
BHP vs RIO: the full fundamentals
BHP. BHP reports on an Australian fiscal year ending June 30 and reports in US dollars. FY2025 revenue fell about 8% to roughly $51 billion on lower iron ore and coal prices, even as copper reached a record. The variable dividend and cyclical earnings mean valuation multiples and yield shift with the commodity cycle rather than staying fixed.
RIO. Revenue and EBITDA both grew in 2025, but reported profit slipped and net debt roughly tripled after the Arcadium lithium acquisition. Shares traded around the low-to-mid $90s at mid-2026 on a trailing P/E of roughly 15, a discount that reflects commodity-cycle risk. The full-year dividend of about $6.5 billion at a roughly 60% payout keeps the yield near 4%.
Headline figures (approximate, JULY 2026): BHP shows revenue (fy2025) ~$51 billion, underlying ebitda (fy2025) ~$26 billion (~53% margin), market capitalization ~$205 billion, dividend yield (adr) ~3.3% to 3.5%; RIO shows revenue (2025) ~$57.6B, underlying ebitda (2025) ~$25.4B, underlying earnings (2025) ~$10.9B, net debt ~$14.4B.
The bottom line: BHP vs RIO
BHP and RIO are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined BHP and RIO exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Investing in BHP Group with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how BHP fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between BHP and RIO?
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BHP Group is a global diversified resources company headquartered in Australia and dual-listed, with a US ADR trading on the NYSE under BHP. Rio Tinto is a global mining group that digs, processes, and ships the raw materials behind steel, power grids, and batteries. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is BHP or RIO the better stock?
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Neither is universally better. BHP is the larger incumbent; RIO is the smaller challenger and looks cheaper on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, BHP or RIO?
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On forward P/E (as of July 2026), BHP trades at 16.99x and RIO at 10.62x, so RIO is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both BHP and RIO?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of BHP vs RIO?
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BHP: BHP's earnings are highly sensitive to iron ore and copper prices, which are driven by Chinese property and steel demand, global growth, and supply from rivals. A downturn in commodity prices compresses margins and reduces the variable dividend, so income is not guaranteed. Large projects such as Jansen carry execution, cost-overrun and timing risk, and Escondida faces natural grade decline and water and labor constraints in Chile. The company also faces regulatory, environmental and community risks across many jurisdictions, plus legacy liabilities such as the Samarco dam-failure litigation in Brazil. As an ADR, US holders also take on currency and dividend-withholding considerations. RIO: Rio's fortunes are tightly linked to iron ore prices, which hinge on Chinese steel demand and property construction, so a slowdown there hits earnings and the dividend directly. Net debt rose sharply in 2025 after funding the Arcadium lithium deal, and lithium prices have been weak, so that investment may take years to pay off. Large projects like Simandou and Oyu Tolgoi carry execution, cost-overrun, and geopolitical risk across Guinea and Mongolia. The company also faces environmental, permitting, and community-relations scrutiny after past controversies, plus periodic merger and consolidation speculation (including reported talks involving Glencore) that could reshape the business. As with any miner, currency and energy-cost swings add further volatility.
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Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell BHP or RIO; figures are approximate and dated (as of July 2026). Verify current data before investing.