ES vs NGG: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated October 2026
Short answer
NGG is the larger of the two ($82.21B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (12.34x forward earnings, beta 0.58). ES is the smaller challenger ($25.18B), priced similarly on forward earnings (13.56x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.
ES vs NGG: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | ES | NGG | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $25.18B | $82.21B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 13.56 | 12.34 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 17.32 | 18.63 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 0.68 | 0.58 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 30% of range | 39% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
Before you buy: how ES and NGG affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. ES and NGG share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined ES and NGG exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does Eversource Energy (ES) do?
Eversource Energy is a public utility holding company that delivers electricity and natural gas to roughly 4 million customers across Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Its earnings come almost entirely from regulated electric distribution, electric transmission, and gas distribution, where allowed returns and rate base (the capital investment regulators let it earn on) drive results. After several turbulent years, the company completed its exit from offshore wind in 2024 and closed the ~$2.4 billion sale of its Aquarion Water business in mid-2026, repositioning itself as a pure-play regulated utility focused on wires and pipes.
What does National Grid plc (NGG) do?
National Grid plc owns and operates regulated energy networks on both sides of the Atlantic. In the UK it runs the high-voltage electricity transmission system in England and Wales and, through National Grid Electricity Distribution (the former Western Power), the local power networks serving roughly 8 million customers in the Midlands, South West England and South Wales. In the US it owns Niagara Mohawk in upstate New York, the KEDNY and KEDLI gas utilities in Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island, and electric and gas utilities in Massachusetts, plus FERC-regulated transmission in New England. A smaller arm, National Grid Ventures, holds interconnectors to Europe and minority investments. The company has spent three years simplifying: it sold the electricity system operator to the UK government, a majority of its UK gas transmission business, National Grid Renewables and Grain LNG. The NYSE-listed NGG is an American Depositary Receipt, and one ADR represents five ordinary shares listed in London as NG.
ES vs NGG: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- ES drivers: Rate-base growth from a large capital plan; Simplified pure-play regulated profile.
- NGG drivers: RIIO-T3 and the UK transmission build; New York rate base growth.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Regulatory outcomes are the central risk: a FERC reduction to the base transmission ROE is expected to lower after-tax earnings by roughly $70 million in 2026 and contributed to a downward revision of full-year guidance. For NGG, regulation is the core risk.
ES or NGG: which should you pick?
Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick ES if you believe its drivers more; NGG if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the ES and NGG guides.
ES vs NGG: the full fundamentals
ES. Eversource beat Q1 2026 estimates with revenue of about $4.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.73, then met the $0.87 consensus in Q2, after trimming full-year non-GAAP guidance to roughly $4.57 to $4.72 to reflect the FERC ROE reduction and the loss of Aquarion earnings; consensus sits near $4.65. At about $66.75 on October 16, 2026 the stock trades near 17x trailing and about 13.5x forward earnings with a yield near 4.7 percent, toward the cheaper end for a regulated utility, where shares trade on rate-base growth, regulatory outcomes and interest rates more than on quarterly momentum. The average analyst target among 12 analysts was about $73.
NGG. Utilities are usually valued on earnings, dividends and the premium paid over regulated asset value. National Grid's regulated assets plus other businesses totaled ~£72 billion at March 2026 against ~£44 billion of net debt, so the ~£61 billion equity value implies a premium to book asset value, consistent with investor confidence in growth. The trailing P/E of ~15.7x on underlying EPS falls toward ~14x if 2026/27 EPS grows 13-15% as guided. Statutory EPS was lower at 65.5p, putting the statutory P/E near ~19x. The ADR has traded between ~$73 and ~$95 over the past year.
Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): ES shows revenue (ttm) ~$14.0B, net income (ttm) ~$1.45B (profit margin ~10%), market cap ~$25.1B, 2026 eps consensus ~$4.65 (2027: ~$4.93); NGG shows adr price (ngg) ~$82 (1 ADR = 5 ordinary shares), market cap ~$82 billion (~£61 billion), revenue (fy to mar 2026) ~£17.7 billion (~$23.6 billion), underlying eps (fy to mar 2026) ~78.0p (~$5.20 per ADR).
The bottom line: ES vs NGG
ES and NGG are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined ES and NGG exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how ES or NGG fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in Eversource Energy with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how ES fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between ES and NGG?
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Eversource Energy is a public utility holding company that delivers electricity and natural gas to roughly 4 million customers across Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. National Grid plc owns and operates regulated energy networks on both sides of the Atlantic. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is ES or NGG the better stock?
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Neither is universally better. NGG is the larger incumbent; ES is the smaller challenger and looks pricier on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, ES or NGG?
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On forward P/E (as of October 2026), ES trades at 13.56x and NGG at 12.34x, so NGG is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both ES and NGG?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of ES vs NGG?
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ES: Regulatory outcomes are the central risk: a FERC reduction to the base transmission ROE is expected to lower after-tax earnings by roughly $70 million in 2026 and contributed to a downward revision of full-year guidance. State rate cases in Connecticut and Massachusetts have at times been contentious, which can pressure allowed returns and cost recovery; the Connecticut Light and Power rate case has hearings starting in February 2027 and a draft decision expected in May, and Connecticut's storm-cost ruling excluded carrying costs. Management says the newly appointed Connecticut commission is more stable, but that is a forecast, not an outcome. As a capital-intensive utility, Eversource is sensitive to interest rates, since higher rates raise financing costs and make its dividend yield less competitive versus bonds. Residual cost-sharing obligations from the offshore wind exit (up to roughly $240 million of potential overrun exposure shared with the buyer) remain an overhang. Analyst views are mixed (a consensus hold rating, with targets ranging from Scotiabank's $59 to Goldman Sachs' $80 in recent weeks). Finally, executing a multi-billion-dollar capital plan while managing leverage leaves limited room for operational or weather-related surprises. NGG: Regulation is the core risk. Ofgem and US state commissions set allowed returns, and political pressure on household bills in both the UK and New York can squeeze outcomes, as the March 2026 FERC order cutting New England transmission returns showed. Pending decisions on Massachusetts Gas and the downstate New York gas utilities could disappoint. Funding is the second risk: net debt was ~£44.2 billion and FFO to net debt slipped to 13.0%, with regulatory gearing guided to rise from 61% toward the high 60s by 2030/31. The 2024 rights issue raised ~£7 billion and diluted holders, and the scrip dividend keeps adding shares. Higher interest rates raise financing costs and lower the value placed on long-dated utility cash flows. Delivery risk is real on a £70 billion program that depends on supply chains, planning consent and skilled labor. Operational incidents also matter: the March 2025 fire at a substation that shut Heathrow drew scrutiny, and US law firms have announced investor investigations, though no filed class action was found. Storms add costs. For US holders, sterling moves change the dollar value of earnings and dividends, and UK dividends are paid in pounds and converted.
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Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell ES or NGG; figures are approximate and dated (as of October 2026). Verify current data before investing.