GFL vs RSG: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: RSG is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. GFL and RSG share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined GFL and RSG exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

GFL Environmental is a Vaughan, Ontario-based environmental services company that collects, transfers, disposes of, and recycles solid waste across Canada and roughly 18 U.S. states. Built through aggressive acquisitions since its 2007 founding by Patrick Dovigi (the name stands for Green For Life), it grew into the fourth largest diversified environmental services operator in North America, with more than 15,000 employees and a dense network of collection routes, transfer stations, and landfills. Its revenue is largely recurring and contract-based, and it leans heavily on core pricing (raising rates ahead of inflation) plus tuck-in acquisitions to grow.

Full GFL guide

Republic Services collects, transfers, recycles and buries waste. Collection produced 67.6% of revenue in the second quarter of 2026, split across small-container commercial (30.9%), large-container industrial (19.0%) and residential (17.3%). Post-collection disposal added a further 11.7% from landfills and 5.2% from transfer stations, both net of intercompany volume. Environmental Solutions, the Group 3 reportable segment that handles hazardous and non-hazardous industrial waste through 24 treatment, storage and disposal facilities, 16 deep injection wells and a field services business, contributed 10.3%. Recycling processing, commodity sales and other non-core lines made up the remaining ~5%. The physical network as of June 30, 2026 ran to 389 collection operations, 260 transfer stations, 84 recycling centers, two polymer centers and 208 active landfills holding an estimated 5.1 billion in-place cubic yards of available airspace, with an average remaining site life of 56 years. Republic also carries post-closure responsibility for 125 closed landfills and runs 87 landfill gas-to-energy and other renewable energy projects. Roughly 67% of collected solid waste is disposed at sites the company owns or operates, the internalization rate that turns a hauling route into a vertically integrated margin.

Full RSG guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• GFL drivers: Pricing-led organic growth; Post-divestiture deleveraging.
• RSG drivers: Price above cost inflation is the entire engine; Volume is being given up on purpose.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: GFL's growth has been built on acquisitions, which brings integration risk and a history of elevated leverage even after the recent paydown. For RSG, environmental Solutions is the visible soft spot.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick GFL if you believe its drivers more; RSG if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the GFL and RSG guides.

GFL. GFL reports in Canadian dollars, so its roughly $6.6 billion CAD of annual revenue converts to about $4.8 billion USD at recent exchange rates. The company has raised full-year guidance multiple times on pricing strength, and margins have expanded past 31 percent. With a market cap around $13 billion, GFL trades at a premium multiple typical of high-quality waste operators.

RSG. Republic's low-30s trailing multiple sits close to Waste Management, at ~31.7 times on $25.67 billion of trailing revenue, and comfortably below Waste Connections at ~41 times on $9.76 billion. The sector as a whole carries an equity-like multiple on utility-like volatility, and buyers are underwriting decades of contracted price escalation rather than any growth in the amount of garbage Americans produce. One caution on the reported figures: GAAP pre-tax income now absorbs roughly $190 million a year of equity-method losses from renewable energy investments, which is offset in the tax provision rather than added back to adjusted EPS, so headline earnings growth understates operating performance while the effective tax rate flatters it.

Headline figures (approximate, JULY 2026): GFL shows revenue (ttm) ~$4.8B USD (~$6.6B CAD), market cap ~$13B USD, adjusted ebitda (fy2025 guide) ~$2.0B CAD, adjusted ebitda margin ~31%; RSG shows revenue (ttm) ~$16.89 billion for the twelve months to June 30, 2026, up ~3.2%, versus $16.591 billion in fiscal 2025, $16.032 billion in 2024 and $14.965 billion in 2023. Second-quarter revenue was $4.430 billion, up 4.6%, and first-half revenue $8.544 billion, up 3.6%. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance on August 6 to $17.200 billion to $17.300 billion., earnings and eps Net income attributable to Republic was $566 million in the second quarter, a 12.8% margin, or $1.84 per diluted share, against $550 million and $1.75 a year earlier. Adjusted EPS was $1.85 versus $1.77. TTM net income is ~$2.19 billion on ~$7.06 of diluted EPS. Full-year 2026 guidance is $7.18 to $7.23 reported and $7.23 to $7.28 adjusted, with adjusted EBITDA of $5.525 billion to $5.550 billion., pricing and volume Core price added 5.3% to second-quarter revenue (6.4% of related-business revenue, made up of 7.8% open market and 4.1% restricted), average yield 3.4%, fuel recovery fees 1.8%, acquisitions 1.1%, while volume subtracted 1.6%. By line: residential yield 4.4% on volume of negative 4.3%, small-container yield 5.0% on volume of negative 0.2%, large-container yield 3.8% on volume of negative 2.2%, and municipal solid waste landfill yield 5.6% on volume of positive 1.1%., segment mix and margin Recycling and Waste generated $3.972 billion of second-quarter revenue at a 33.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, up from 33.1%. Environmental Solutions generated $458 million at 20.2%, down from 24.4%, and $863 million at 19.7% for the half against $911 million at 22.6%. Group adjusted EBITDA margin was 32.1% in both periods. Recycled commodities averaged $136 per ton in the quarter, $13 below the prior year..

GFL and RSG are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined GFL and RSG exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.