ILKAY vs LYSCF: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. ILKAY and LYSCF share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined ILKAY and LYSCF exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Iluka Resources Limited is one of the world's largest producers of zircon and a major supplier of high grade titanium dioxide feedstocks, principally rutile and synthetic rutile. Zircon goes mostly into ceramic tiles, glazes, refractories and zirconium chemicals, while rutile and synthetic rutile feed titanium dioxide pigment plants that make white pigment for paint, plastics and paper. That end market is deeply cyclical and it turned against Iluka through 2025: demand was subdued, the pigment industry restructured, and mineral sands revenue fell ~13.5% to ~A$976M. Management responded by idling capacity rather than selling into weakness, suspending mining at the Cataby operation for around twelve months and taking the SR2 synthetic rutile kiln offline, which cut 2026 cash costs of production guidance to roughly A$420M from about A$590M in 2025. Group revenue for the year ended 31 December 2025 was roughly A$1.02B. A statutory net loss of about A$288M followed roughly A$565M of exceptional items including impairments and an inventory write down, and the full year dividend was cut to 5 Australian cents per ordinary share, fully franked, from 8 cents the year before.

Full ILKAY guide

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd is a Perth-based miner and processor. It digs rare earth ore at Mt Weld in Western Australia, cracks and leaches the concentrate at its Kalgoorlie facility, and separates it into finished oxides at its plant in Kuantan, Malaysia. Revenue comes from selling those oxides to magnet makers, metal makers and manufacturers, mostly in Japan, other parts of Asia and, increasingly, the US and Europe. The main product is neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), used in the permanent magnets inside electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, robotics and defense systems. Since mid-2025 it has also produced the heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbium, and in March 2026 it made its first samarium oxide, which makes it the only commercial producer of both light and heavy separated rare earths outside China. The primary listing is LYC on the ASX. LYSCF trades the same ordinary shares OTC in US dollars, one for one, and a sponsored ADR, LYSDY, also trades OTC at one ADR per share.

Full LYSCF guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• ILKAY drivers: Eneabba refinery commissioning and the shift from capex to revenue; Zircon pricing and the pigment cycle.
• LYSCF drivers: Supply security outside China; NdPr and heavy rare earth pricing.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Iluka's mineral sands earnings are cyclical and price-taking, and the 2025 result showed how quickly a soft pigment market flows through to revenue, impairments and the dividend. For LYSCF, the biggest risk is price.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick ILKAY if you believe its drivers more; LYSCF if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the ILKAY and LYSCF guides.

ILKAY. Iluka reports in Australian dollars and the ASX line ILU is the primary listing, so every figure above except the ADR price, market value and yield is an Australian dollar number. With a trailing net loss there is no P/E to anchor on, and at about 1.1 times book value and 1.8 times sales the ADR is priced closer to the mineral sands business's asset base than to any earnings from Eneabba, which is still pre-revenue. Consensus revenue estimates of roughly 0.90B for 2026 and 1.1B for 2027 imply a modest recovery, but analyst coverage of the ADR line itself is thin.

LYSCF. On October 16, 2026 the US OTC quote was about $7.65, a market value of roughly US$7.7 billion, near the 52-week low of ~$7.43 and about half the ~$15.75 high reached in April 2026. The trailing multiple of ~51x looks high because FY26 profit, while a record, came off a very low FY25 base, and because the June quarter's ~A$98/kg selling price was well above the full-year average. Financial figures are in Australian dollars and the OTC price in US dollars, so the ratios also move with the AUD/USD rate.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): ILKAY shows revenue (trailing twelve months to 30 june 2026) ~A$894M, down ~21% year on year in the latest reported period (FY2025 group revenue was ~A$1.02B, of which ~A$976M mineral sands), margins (trailing twelve months) Gross margin ~37%, operating margin ~-8%, net margin ~-45%, net income (trailing twelve months) Net loss of ~A$404M, or about -3.19 per ADR on Yahoo's basis; FY2025 statutory loss was ~A$288M after ~A$565M of exceptional items, valuation multiples No meaningful P/E (loss-making); price to sales ~1.8x, price to book ~1.1x, EV/EBITDA ~17x; LYSCF shows revenue (fy26, to june 30) ~A$978M (up from ~A$557M), net profit (fy26) ~A$222M (vs ~A$8M in FY25), ebitda (fy26) ~A$386M (vs ~A$101M), june 2026 quarter revenue / avg price ~A$289M / record ~A$98.2/kg.

ILKAY and LYSCF are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined ILKAY and LYSCF exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.