KEY vs MTB: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated August 2026
Short answer
MTB is the larger of the two ($35.70B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (11.70x forward earnings, beta 0.57). KEY is the smaller challenger ($24.22B), priced similarly on forward earnings (10.56x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.
KEY vs MTB: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | KEY | MTB | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $24.22B | $35.70B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 10.56 | 11.70 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 13.21 | 13.04 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 1.02 | 0.57 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 81% of range | 89% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 1.40 | 1.40 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Before you buy: how KEY and MTB affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. KEY and MTB share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined KEY and MTB exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does KeyCorp (KEY) do?
KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) is the Cleveland, Ohio holding company for KeyBank National Association, one of the larger regional banks in the United States, with roughly $189 billion in assets as of early 2026. It operates through two segments: the Consumer Bank, which offers deposits, mortgages, home equity, credit cards, student-loan refinancing (through its national Laurel Road digital brand), and financial-wellness services to individuals and small businesses across a 15-state branch footprint, and the Commercial Bank, which serves middle-market clients in seven industry verticals (consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public sector, real estate, and technology) with lending, treasury management, and capital-markets services. Like other banks, KeyCorp makes money in two broad ways: net interest income, the spread between what it earns on loans and securities and what it pays on deposits, and noninterest fee income from investment banking, payments, wealth management, and service charges.
What does M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) do?
M&T Bank Corporation is a regional bank holding company founded in 1856 and headquartered in Buffalo, New York. It serves consumers, small businesses, middle-market companies, and commercial real estate borrowers across roughly a dozen states from Maine to Virginia plus Washington, D.C., through three segments: Commercial Banking, Retail Banking, and Institutional Services and Wealth Management (which includes the Wilmington Trust brand). Its 2022 acquisition of People's United Financial for about $8.3 billion added a large New England footprint, bringing the network to more than 1,000 branches and over 2,200 ATMs. The model leans on relationship banking, localized decision-making, and a stable core-deposit franchise rather than national-scale mass retail.
KEY vs MTB: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- KEY drivers: Net interest income and margin recovery; Fee income and investment banking.
- MTB drivers: Core deposit franchise and margin; Commercial and middle-market lending.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: KeyCorp is highly sensitive to interest rates: net interest income is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, an inverted yield curve, or deposit repricing can compress the net interest margin and earnings. For MTB, as a regional bank, M&T is exposed to interest rate swings that can compress or expand net interest margin, and to the broader health of its Northeast and Mid-Atlantic economies.
KEY or MTB: which should you pick?
Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick KEY if you believe its drivers more; MTB if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the KEY and MTB guides.
KEY vs MTB: the full fundamentals
KEY. KeyCorp trades as a mid-cap regional bank, with a market value near $25 billion on roughly 1.08 billion shares and a dividend yield around 3.7%. Earnings have been recovering sharply off a weak 2024, so year-over-year growth rates look large partly because of the low base. As with all banks, valuation multiples like price-to-book and price-to-earnings are best read against peer regional banks and the direction of interest rates and credit costs.
MTB. M&T reported first quarter 2026 net income of about $664 million, up 14 percent year over year, with diluted EPS near $4.13 and revenue around $2.44 billion. The stock trades at a low-teens trailing price-to-earnings multiple with a dividend yield near 2.5 percent, valuation typical of a profitable, conservatively run regional bank rather than a growth name.
Headline figures (approximate, July 2026): KEY shows total assets ~$189 billion (Q1 2026), q1 2026 total revenue ~$1.95 billion (up ~10% YoY), q1 2026 net income to common ~$486 million, q1 2026 diluted eps ~$0.44 (up ~33% YoY); MTB shows market cap ~$35 billion, q1 2026 revenue ~$2.44 billion, q1 2026 net income ~$664 million, q1 2026 diluted eps ~$4.13.
The bottom line: KEY vs MTB
KEY and MTB are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined KEY and MTB exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how KEY or MTB fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in KeyCorp with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how KEY fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between KEY and MTB?
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KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) is the Cleveland, Ohio holding company for KeyBank National Association, one of the larger regional banks in the United States, with roughly $189 billion in assets as of early 2026. M&T Bank Corporation is a regional bank holding company founded in 1856 and headquartered in Buffalo, New York. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is KEY or MTB the better stock?
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Neither is universally better. MTB is the larger incumbent; KEY is the smaller challenger and looks cheaper on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, KEY or MTB?
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On forward P/E (as of August 2026), KEY trades at 10.56x and MTB at 11.70x, so KEY is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both KEY and MTB?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of KEY vs MTB?
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KEY: KeyCorp is highly sensitive to interest rates: net interest income is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, an inverted yield curve, or deposit repricing can compress the net interest margin and earnings. As an economically cyclical regional bank, it is exposed to the credit cycle, where a recession or rising unemployment would increase loan losses; commercial real estate and leveraged commercial lending are areas investors watch closely, though credit metrics were healthy in early 2026 (net charge-offs around 38 basis points). Deposit competition from larger banks, online banks, and money-market funds can raise funding costs. The 2024 securities repositioning was executed at a realized loss, and any renewed rate volatility could pressure the securities book again. Finally, regional banks broadly face heightened regulatory scrutiny and capital requirements after the 2023 regional-bank stress, and Scotiabank's large minority stake, while a source of capital, concentrates a significant block of ownership with a single strategic holder. MTB: As a regional bank, M&T is exposed to interest rate swings that can compress or expand net interest margin, and to the broader health of its Northeast and Mid-Atlantic economies. Its commercial real estate book is a specific area markets scrutinize, since a downturn there could raise charge-offs and provisions. Deposit competition from national banks with larger digital platforms is an ongoing pressure, and any renewed regional-banking stress or deposit flight could weigh on funding costs. Loan growth and credit normalization both depend on the economic cycle, so a recession or spike in unemployment would likely lift losses. Regulatory capital rules for banks of its size can also shift the amount of capital available for buybacks and dividends.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell KEY or MTB; figures are approximate and dated (as of August 2026). Verify current data before investing.