MP vs USAR: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: MP is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. MP and USAR share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined MP and USAR exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

MP Materials operates the only fully integrated rare earth mining and processing facility in the Western Hemisphere, located at Mountain Pass, California. Rare earth elements (particularly neodymium and praseodymium, NdPr) are critical inputs to permanent magnets used in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, defense systems, and various electronics. China dominates global rare earth supply (over 80% of mining and processing), making Western supply diversification a strategic priority for US national security and industrial policy.

Full MP guide

USA Rare Earth is trying to rebuild, inside the United States, a supply chain that China currently dominates end to end: mining rare earth ore, separating it into individual oxides, converting those oxides into metals and alloys, and sintering the alloys into the neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets that go into electric-vehicle motors, drones, robotics, wind turbines, and defense hardware. The company has four moving pieces. Stillwater, Oklahoma is a magnet plant whose Phase 1a line was commissioned in March 2026 and began fulfilling customer orders in the second quarter, with a targeted run rate of ~600 metric tons per year by the end of 2026 and roughly ~5,000 tonnes at full build. Less Common Metals, a Cheshire, England metal and alloy producer bought for ~$100 million in cash plus stock in late 2025, supplies the strip-cast alloy and currently generates essentially all of the reported revenue. A hydrometallurgical demonstration plant in Wheat Ridge, Colorado has produced commercial-grade dysprosium and neodymium-praseodymium oxides, including from recycled magnet feed. And Round Top, a rhyolite deposit near Sierra Blanca in Hudspeth County, Texas, hosts 16 of the 17 rare earth elements with heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium making up roughly ~70% of the contained rare earth content, plus lithium, gallium, beryllium, hafnium, and zirconium. USA Rare Earth consolidated Round Top to 100% ownership when Texas Mineral Resources shareholders approved a stock merger in July 2026.

Full USAR guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• MP drivers: Western rare earth supply chain diversification; Magnet manufacturing buildout.
• USAR drivers: The Stillwater magnet ramp; Round Top and heavy rare earth separation.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Rare earth pricing volatility creates earnings swings. For USAR, the gap between a ~$4.5 billion market value and ~$7 million of trailing revenue means almost the entire price is expectations, and expectations reprice fast: the stock has ranged from roughly ~$11 to ~$44 within a year and carries a beta near 2.6.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick MP if you believe its drivers more; USAR if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the MP and USAR guides.

MP. MP Materials valuation is more of an option-value play than a traditional earnings multiple analysis. The market is pricing the strategic value of US rare earth processing and magnet manufacturing capacity rather than current earnings. Sensitivity to rare earth pricing recovery and magnet facility ramp execution is high.

USAR. Conventional valuation multiples do not apply here, because there is no meaningful earnings base and the revenue line reflects one acquired alloy business rather than the magnet or mining plan. What the market is pricing is a combination of the cash on hand, the option value of Round Top and Serra Verde, and the government relationship, which is why the shares move on milestones and funding headlines rather than on quarterly numbers. Second quarter 2026 results were scheduled for release after the close on August 10, 2026, so the first quarter remains the latest reported period as of this writing.

Headline figures (approximate, early 2026): MP shows revenue (ttm) ~$200 million (depressed by NdPr price weakness), operating margin Negative or marginal at current rare earth prices, net income (ttm) Approximately breakeven; cyclical, eps (ttm) Near zero or slightly negative; USAR shows revenue (ttm) ~$7.3 million (mostly from Less Common Metals, the UK alloy business), q1 2026 revenue ~$5.7 million, versus ~$1.6 million for all of 2025, q1 2026 net loss ~$67 million GAAP, or ~$24 million adjusted (~$0.12 per diluted share), cash ~$1.75 billion at March 31, 2026, after a ~$1.5 billion PIPE.

MP and USAR are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined MP and USAR exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.