NMIH vs RDN: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. NMIH and RDN share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined NMIH and RDN exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

NMI Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: NMIH), operating as National MI, sells private mortgage insurance that lets lenders originate conventional loans with down payments below 20 percent and sell them to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac while transferring part of the default risk to National MI. Profitability comes from the spread between the premiums it earns on its insurance-in-force and the claims it pays, so risk selection, pricing discipline, and reinsurance are the core levers. The company competes in a concentrated, roughly six-player market and has grown its insured portfolio into a large, seasoned, high-credit-quality book.

Full NMIH guide

Radian Group runs two operating segments after a year of restructuring. The Mortgage segment, written through Radian Guaranty, sells private mortgage insurance to lenders on conventional loans where the borrower puts down less than 20 percent. The insurer collects a monthly or single premium and pays a claim if the loan defaults and the property sells for less than the outstanding balance. Scale is measured in insurance in force rather than in revenue: ~$284 billion of primary insurance in force at June 30, 2026, sitting on ~$75.4 billion of risk in force, produced ~$474.5 million of net premiums earned in the first half. The Specialty segment is Inigo, the Lloyd's of London underwriter Radian bought for ~$1.67 billion on February 2, 2026, which writes property, casualty, marine, energy and other specialty lines through Syndicate 1301 and contributed ~$431.7 million of net premiums earned over the same six months. Three other businesses are on their way out. Real Estate Services was sold to PLACE in August 2026, the title insurance business is under a definitive agreement expected to close in the fourth quarter, and the mortgage conduit has been substantially wound down, all three carried as discontinued operations.

Full RDN guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• NMIH drivers: Growing, high-quality insurance-in-force; Mid-teens returns and capital return.
• RDN drivers: The in-force book runs on persistency, not new sales; Half the premium now comes from a Lloyd's syndicate.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The dominant risk is housing credit: a recession, rising unemployment, or falling home prices would push the loss ratio well above today's low-teens level, and mortgage insurance losses arrive with a lag after stress begins. For RDN, the Specialty segment ran a ~93.0 percent combined ratio in the first half of 2026, which leaves thin margin before an underwriting loss, and Lloyd's syndicates carry catastrophe exposure that arrives in lumps rather than in trend lines.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick NMIH if you believe its drivers more; RDN if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the NMIH and RDN guides.

NMIH. NMIH trades at about 8 times trailing earnings and roughly 1.1 times book, a discount to the private-mortgage-insurer peer average that prices in the cyclical loss risk in the business. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was a record ~$187.9 million with net income of ~$105.8 million ($1.38 per share), and analysts expect about $5.27 of EPS for 2026 and $5.52 for 2027. Q3 results on November 5, 2026 (consensus ~$1.30) are the next update; figures are approximate, so verify against the latest filing.

RDN. Insurance holding companies are read on book value and return on equity, so the ~2.7 times sales multiple a screener prints for RDN carries almost no information about what the business is worth. At ~0.94 times book the stock now sits near the bottom of the ~0.9 to ~1.3 times range US mortgage insurers have generally occupied, and at ~6.5 times forward earnings the market is crediting little of the accretion management guided to from Inigo. The second-quarter miss, the ~93 percent specialty combined ratio and the change of chief executive all feed that discount, and the November 4 report is the next data point.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): NMIH shows revenue (ttm) ~$731M (Q2 2026 +8.1% YoY), net income (ttm) ~$395M (~54% profit margin), diluted eps (ttm) ~$5.08, q2 2026 eps ~$1.38 vs ~$1.28 consensus; RDN shows revenue (ttm) ~$1.65 billion for the twelve months to June 30, 2026, against ~$1.29 billion in fiscal 2025. The increase is acquired rather than organic: it represents roughly five months of Inigo, consolidated from February 2, 2026. Quarterly revenue went from ~$331 million and ~$326 million in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 to ~$493 million and ~$575 million in the first two quarters of 2026, the latter up ~93.5 percent year over year on net premiums earned of ~$504 million (up ~115.7 percent)., margins Operating margin of ~31.6 percent and net margin of ~32.5 percent on trailing revenue. Both are lower than the mortgage-only business produced, because the Specialty segment ran a ~93.0 percent combined ratio in the first half of 2026 against ~33.0 percent in Mortgage., earnings and eps Net income of ~$559 million over the trailing twelve months, for trailing EPS of ~$4.05, with year-over-year earnings growth of ~-16.2 percent in the latest quarter. Quarterly earnings ran ~$141 million, ~$155 million, ~$124 million and ~$116 million across the last four quarters. Against estimates, EPS beat in three of four quarters (~$1.07 vs ~$1.01, ~$1.13 vs ~$1.09, ~$1.23 vs ~$1.20) and missed in the second quarter of 2026 at ~$1.14 against ~$1.35., segment mix and operating metrics In the first half of 2026 the Mortgage segment earned ~$474.5 million of net premiums at a ~33.0 percent combined ratio, while the Specialty segment earned ~$431.7 million at a ~93.0 percent combined ratio that still carries integration and purchase-accounting effects. Primary mortgage insurance in force reached a record ~$284 billion at June 30, 2026, on ~$75.4 billion of risk in force, with persistency of ~82 percent and a primary default rate of ~2.47 percent versus ~2.27 percent a year earlier..

NMIH and RDN are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined NMIH and RDN exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.