Radian Group Inc. (RDN) Stock Price & How to Invest

Radian Group runs two operating segments after a year of restructuring. The Mortgage segment, written through Radian Guaranty, sells private mortgage insurance to lenders on conventional loans where the borrower puts down less than 20 percent. The insurer collects a monthly or single premium and pays a claim if the loan defaults and the property sells for less than the outstanding balance. Scale is measured in insurance in force rather than in revenue: ~$284 billion of primary insurance in force at June 30, 2026, sitting on ~$75.4 billion of risk in force, produced ~$474.5 million of net premiums earned in the first half. The Specialty segment is Inigo, the Lloyd's of London underwriter Radian bought for ~$1.67 billion on February 2, 2026, which writes property, casualty, marine, energy and other specialty lines through Syndicate 1301 and contributed ~$431.7 million of net premiums earned over the same six months. Three other businesses are on their way out. Real Estate Services was sold to PLACE in August 2026, the title insurance business is under a definitive agreement expected to close in the fourth quarter, and the mortgage conduit has been substantially wound down, all three carried as discontinued operations.

What drives the mortgage numbers is persistency and cure rates rather than new sales. New insurance written of ~$16.3 billion in the second quarter was up ~14 percent year over year, yet the in-force book grew only ~3 percent, because persistency of ~82 percent leaves roughly a fifth of it running off annually. High mortgage rates are the reason policies stay: a borrower carrying a 6 or 7 percent coupon has little incentive to refinance the coverage away. Losses have effectively been running in reverse, with the Mortgage segment posting a ~33.0 percent combined ratio in the first half as cures exceeded new defaults and reserves came back into income. The primary default rate did tick up, to ~2.47 percent of loans from ~2.27 percent a year earlier. On the specialty side the market is being asked to pay for a Lloyd's platform bought at ~1.4 times its ~$1.16 billion of year-end 2025 tangible equity, against management guidance of mid-teens EPS accretion and ~200 basis points of ROE accretion in 2026. So far it has not. At ~$36.59 the shares sit near book value of ~$36.00 and around ~9 times trailing earnings, roughly where standalone US mortgage insurers trade, implying the acquired business is being carried at or below what was paid for it.

The Specialty segment ran a ~93.0 percent combined ratio in the first half of 2026, which leaves thin margin before an underwriting loss, and Lloyd's syndicates carry catastrophe exposure that arrives in lumps rather than in trend lines. Syndicate 1301 writes property and specialty risk into a market that has been softening since the 2023 rate peak, so the ~1.4 times tangible equity Radian paid assumes pricing holds up reasonably well. Purchase accounting both flatters and distorts the first year in different places, and a clean run-rate will not be visible until 2027. Integration risk sits on top of a leadership change: Mike Weinbach took over as chief executive on August 13, 2026, Rick Thornberry departs at year end after nearly a decade, and the London business is being kept under its own management. On the mortgage side the credit cycle has begun to turn. Primary delinquencies rose to ~2.47 percent of loans at June 30, 2026 from ~2.27 percent a year earlier, and the 2021 and 2022 vintages are entering the years when defaults historically peak. First-half earnings leaned on reserve releases, visible in the ~33.0 percent combined ratio, and a rising default rate reverses that arithmetic quickly, because the same loans that release reserves on cure consume them on default. Rates cut both ways. A fall in mortgage rates would lift new insurance written but drag persistency below ~82 percent, shrinking the in-force book that generates the premium. Capital is tighter than it was: total debt of ~$1.345 billion at June 30, 2026 against ~$4.8 billion of equity, with ~$600 million of the purchase funded by that intercompany note out of Radian Guaranty, whose PMIERs excess available assets stood at ~$1.5 billion. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHFA set those capital requirements and have revised them before.

5 analysts publish price targets on RDN, averaging $43.80 against a $36.59 price as of August 2026, or +19.7%. The published targets run from $35.00 to $48.00, a narrow spread, and the ratings split 4 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there have been 4 raises and 4 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full RDN forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on Radian Group Inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. The in-force book runs on persistency, not new sales. Radian's mortgage revenue comes from a stock of policies rather than a flow of transactions. The most optimistic published target, $48.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. The Specialty segment ran a ~93.0 percent combined ratio in the first half of 2026, which leaves thin margin before an underwriting loss, and Lloyd's syndicates carry catastrophe exposure that arrives in lumps rather than in trend lines. The most pessimistic target, $35.00, is roughly what RDN is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on RDN, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Radian Group Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$1.65 billion for the twelve months to June 30, 2026, up ~37.5 percent, against ~$1.197 billion in fiscal 2025, ~$1.206 billion in 2024 and ~$1.177 billion in 2023. The increase is acquired rather than organic: it represents roughly five months of Inigo, consolidated from February 2, 2026. Second-quarter revenue alone was ~$575 million, up ~93 percent year over year, on net premiums earned of ~$504 million (up ~115.7 percent) and net investment income of ~$70 million (up ~21.1 percent). First-half 2026 total revenue was ~$1.041 billion.
• Earnings and EPS: Net income of ~$536 million for the twelve months to June 30, 2026, down ~8.6 percent, for diluted EPS of ~$3.89 against ~$4.14 in 2025, ~$3.92 in 2024 and ~$3.77 in 2023. First-half 2026 net income was ~$240.0 million, split between ~$247.7 million from continuing operations and a ~$7.7 million loss from discontinued ones. The second quarter produced ~$118 million, or ~$0.87 diluted, from continuing operations, with adjusted diluted net operating income of ~$1.14 per share.
• Segment mix and operating metrics: In the first half of 2026 the Mortgage segment earned ~$474.5 million of net premiums at a ~33.0 percent combined ratio, while the Specialty segment earned ~$431.7 million at a ~93.0 percent combined ratio that still carries integration and purchase-accounting effects. Primary mortgage insurance in force reached a record ~$284 billion at June 30, 2026, up ~3 percent, on ~$75.4 billion of risk in force. New insurance written was ~$16.3 billion in the quarter, up ~14 percent. Persistency was ~82 percent, up ~70 basis points, and the primary default rate ~2.47 percent versus ~2.27 percent a year earlier.
• Balance sheet and regulatory capital: Total assets of ~$10.66 billion at June 30, 2026, up ~31 percent on the acquisition, with shareholders' equity of ~$4.8 billion and reserves for losses and loss adjustment expense of ~$1.91 billion. Total debt was ~$1.345 billion, up from ~$1.193 billion at year-end 2025, and ~$600 million of the Inigo purchase price came from a 10-year, 6.50 percent intercompany note issued by Radian Guaranty. Book value per share was ~$36.00, up ~8.5 percent year over year. Radian Guaranty held ~$1.5 billion of available assets above its PMIERs minimum.
• Capital return: The quarterly dividend is $0.255 per share, ~$1.02 annualised, costing ~$37 million a quarter, for a yield of ~2.79 percent at ~$36.59 and a payout ratio near ~26 percent of trailing EPS. Radian also repurchased ~2.2 million shares for ~$76 million in the second quarter of 2026, so buybacks ran roughly double the dividend. Share count stood at ~132.3 million as of August 5, 2026 and has been reduced steadily through repurchase over several years. Dividend and buyback capacity both depend on distributions up from Radian Guaranty, which are governed by state insurance law and PMIERs headroom.
• Market pricing: At ~$36.59 the shares carry a market capitalisation of ~$4.84 billion on ~132.3 million shares, inside a 52-week range of ~$31.50 to ~$41.05. The stock trades at ~9.0 times trailing EPS of ~$3.89, ~7.3 times forward estimates, and ~1.02 times book value per share of ~$36.00. Enterprise value to EBITDA is not a meaningful measure for an insurance holding company, since the operating line is underwriting result plus investment income rather than EBITDA, and the ~$1.345 billion of debt is holding-company financing rather than working capital.

Insurance holding companies are read on book value and return on equity, so the ~2.9 times sales multiple a screener prints for RDN carries almost no information about what the business is worth. At ~1.02 times book the stock sits at the low end of the ~0.9 to ~1.3 times range US mortgage insurers have generally occupied, while the forward multiple of ~7.3 times already embeds the mid-teens EPS accretion management guided to from Inigo. Whether the discount reflects the delinquency cycle, the ~93 percent specialty combined ratio, or the change of chief executive is the open argument.

Other names that sit close to RDN: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get RDN exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so RDN sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where RDN fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

As of August 2026, RDN is a roughly one times book, ~9 times trailing earnings insurer whose mortgage arm is running a ~33 percent combined ratio on reserve releases while a newly acquired Lloyd's platform, still at ~93 percent through purchase accounting, decides whether the story reads as diversification or dilution.

Whether RDN is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is RDN a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the RDN stock forecast.

For income investors, whether RDN pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does RDN pay a dividend? And to weigh RDN against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: RDN vs FNMA and RDN vs MTG.