SAIA vs TFII: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated August 2026
Short answer
SAIA and TFII are similarly sized, but TFII trades noticeably cheaper on forward earnings (17.12x vs 24.42x): the market is paying up for SAIA's profile and pricing TFII more conservatively, or for faster growth. Which you prefer comes down to the drivers you believe, and whether adding either over-concentrates what you already own.
SAIA vs TFII: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | SAIA | TFII | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $9.27B | $11.10B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 24.42 | 17.12 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 33.56 | 33.26 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 2.13 | 1.48 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 40% of range | 62% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 3.41 | 4.17 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Reading it: TFII is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.
Before you buy: how SAIA and TFII affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. SAIA and TFII share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined SAIA and TFII exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does Saia (SAIA) do?
Saia, Inc. is a national less-than-truckload carrier that hauls pallet-sized shipments for many customers on shared trucks across a network of more than 200 terminals, competing in the same LTL niche as Old Dominion. The company has spent aggressively since 2022, opening dozens of new terminals (including facilities picked up after rival Yellow collapsed in 2023) and investing over $2 billion in real estate and technology to expand its geographic footprint from a regional Southern base toward true national coverage.
What does TFI International (TFII) do?
TFI International is a North American transportation and logistics company that operates across the United States, Canada, and Mexico through four reporting segments: Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Truckload, Logistics, and Package and Courier. Its LTL business is anchored by TForce Freight, the former UPS Freight operation it acquired for about US$800 million in 2021, and the company has long grown through a steady stream of tuck-in and larger acquisitions under CEO Alain Bedard. It serves e-commerce, retail, industrial, and OEM customers, and its asset-based scale is meant to drive down cost per shipment.
SAIA vs TFII: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- SAIA drivers: National network expansion; Volume re-acceleration and margin leverage.
- TFII drivers: LTL scale and TForce Freight integration; Acquisition-led growth and capital allocation.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Saia's earnings are highly cyclical and tied to industrial production, retail freight, and the broader economy, so a prolonged freight recession pressures volumes and pricing at once. For TFII, the freight recession has dragged on for years, and TFII's LTL tonnage fell more than 7% year over year in a recent quarter while revenue per hundredweight also declined, so a delayed recovery would keep pressure on earnings.
SAIA or TFII: which should you pick?
SAIA vs TFII: the full fundamentals
SAIA. Q1 2026 revenue set a record near $806M, up about 2.4% year over year, though margins were pressured by immature terminals and soft demand. The stock's roughly high-30s price-to-earnings multiple sits well above the broad market, reflecting expectations for continued expansion and eventual margin recovery. Figures are approximate and shift with each quarterly report and stock-price move; the Q2 2026 results were due around July 30, 2026.
TFII. TFII trades at a full trailing earnings multiple after a strong run in the shares, with a lower forward multiple that assumes an earnings recovery. Q1 2026 revenue came in around $1.95 billion, ahead of estimates, but operating income and net income were down year over year as freight demand stayed soft. The valuation embeds an expectation that the freight cycle improves.
Headline figures (approximate, July 2026): SAIA shows revenue (ttm) ~$3.2B, net income (ttm) ~$320M, diluted eps (ttm) ~$11, market cap ~$11B; TFII shows revenue (ttm) ~$7.9B, net income (ttm) ~$300M, market cap ~$11.8B, p/e (trailing) ~44x.
The bottom line: SAIA vs TFII
SAIA and TFII are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined SAIA and TFII exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how SAIA or TFII fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in Saia with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how SAIA fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between SAIA and TFII?
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Saia, Inc. TFI International is a North American transportation and logistics company that operates across the United States, Canada, and Mexico through four reporting segments: Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Truckload, Logistics, and Package and Courier. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is SAIA or TFII the better stock?
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Neither is universally better; they suit different views and risk levels. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, SAIA or TFII?
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On forward P/E (as of August 2026), SAIA trades at 24.42x and TFII at 17.12x, so TFII is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both SAIA and TFII?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of SAIA vs TFII?
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SAIA: Saia's earnings are highly cyclical and tied to industrial production, retail freight, and the broader economy, so a prolonged freight recession pressures volumes and pricing at once. The heavy terminal-expansion program raises costs and capital spending ahead of the revenue it is meant to generate, keeping the operating ratio elevated and dragging on near-term margins. The stock trades at a premium price-to-earnings multiple, which amplifies downside if growth or margin recovery disappoints. Competition from larger and better-capitalized rivals such as Old Dominion is intense, and fuel prices, driver costs, and labor availability all add volatility. Weather and seasonal demand swings can materially move any single quarter. TFII: The freight recession has dragged on for years, and TFII's LTL tonnage fell more than 7% year over year in a recent quarter while revenue per hundredweight also declined, so a delayed recovery would keep pressure on earnings. The stock has already rallied sharply and trades at a fairly full trailing earnings multiple, leaving little room for disappointment. Tariffs and softening industrial demand add uncertainty to volumes. Integration risk on acquisitions is real, since a mis-timed or poorly integrated deal can weigh on margins. Competition from Old Dominion, XPO, Knight-Swift, Saia, and Estes is intense in a consolidating LTL market.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell SAIA or TFII; figures are approximate and dated (as of August 2026). Verify current data before investing.