SAIA vs TFII: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated October 2026
Short answer
SAIA and TFII are similarly sized, but TFII trades noticeably cheaper on forward earnings (14.50x vs 23.52x): the market is paying up for SAIA's profile and pricing TFII more conservatively, or for faster growth. Which you prefer comes down to the drivers you believe, and whether adding either over-concentrates what you already own.
SAIA vs TFII: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | SAIA | TFII | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $8.91B | $9.37B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 23.52 | 14.50 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 32.34 | 28.09 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 2.19 | 1.47 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 35% of range | 38% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 3.27 | 3.43 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Reading it: TFII is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.
Before you buy: how SAIA and TFII affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. SAIA and TFII share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined SAIA and TFII exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does Saia (SAIA) do?
Saia, Inc. is a national less-than-truckload carrier that hauls pallet-sized shipments for many customers on shared trucks across a network of more than 200 terminals, competing in the same LTL niche as Old Dominion. The company has spent aggressively since 2022, opening dozens of new terminals (including facilities picked up after rival Yellow collapsed in 2023) and investing over $2 billion in real estate and technology to expand its geographic footprint from a regional Southern base toward true national coverage. It added a new Long Island terminal in October 2026 to deepen its Northeast coverage.
What does TFI International (TFII) do?
TFI International is a North American transportation and logistics company that operates across the United States, Canada, and Mexico through four reporting segments: Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Truckload, Logistics, and Package and Courier. Its LTL business is anchored by TForce Freight, the former UPS Freight operation it acquired for about US$800 million in 2021, and the company has long grown through a steady stream of tuck-in and larger acquisitions under CEO Alain Bedard. It serves e-commerce, retail, industrial, and OEM customers, and its asset-based scale is meant to drive down cost per shipment.
SAIA vs TFII: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- SAIA drivers: National network expansion; Volume re-acceleration and margin leverage.
- TFII drivers: LTL scale and TForce Freight integration; Acquisition-led growth and capital allocation.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Saia's earnings are highly cyclical and tied to industrial production, retail freight, and the broader economy, so a prolonged freight recession pressures volumes and pricing at once. For TFII, the freight recession has dragged on for years, and TFII's LTL tonnage fell more than 7% year over year in a recent quarter while revenue per hundredweight also declined, so a delayed recovery would keep pressure on earnings.
SAIA or TFII: which should you pick?
SAIA vs TFII: the full fundamentals
SAIA. Q2 2026 revenue of about $956M was up roughly 17% year over year and EPS of $3.51 beat the $3.39 estimate, but the share price has fallen about 23% over three months, so the trailing multiple has compressed from the high 30s to about 32x. The forward P/E near 23x assumes earnings growth of about 25% in both 2026 and 2027. Q3 2026 results are due October 29, 2026, with consensus near $3.30 EPS on about $967M of revenue; figures are approximate and shift with each report and price move.
TFII. As of October 16, 2026, TFII trades near $112.88, about 28 times trailing and 14 times forward earnings, a much lower forward multiple than in July 2026 after the share price fell and earnings estimates rose. The gap between the two multiples is the market's bet on a freight recovery, which the June quarter (revenue up about 12 percent, EPS ahead of estimates) began to show. The analyst mean target is about $158, and third-quarter results on October 29 are the next test.
Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): SAIA shows revenue (ttm) ~$3.4B, revenue growth (q2 2026, yoy) ~17%, net income (ttm) ~$278M, diluted eps (ttm) ~$10.36; TFII shows revenue (ttm) ~$8.1B, revenue growth (q2 2026, yoy) ~12%, operating margin (ttm) ~9%, net income (ttm) ~$336M.
The bottom line: SAIA vs TFII
SAIA and TFII are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined SAIA and TFII exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how SAIA or TFII fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in Saia with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how SAIA fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between SAIA and TFII?
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Saia, Inc. TFI International is a North American transportation and logistics company that operates across the United States, Canada, and Mexico through four reporting segments: Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Truckload, Logistics, and Package and Courier. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is SAIA or TFII the better stock?
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Neither is universally better; they suit different views and risk levels. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, SAIA or TFII?
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On forward P/E (as of October 2026), SAIA trades at 23.52x and TFII at 14.50x, so TFII is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both SAIA and TFII?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of SAIA vs TFII?
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SAIA: Saia's earnings are highly cyclical and tied to industrial production, retail freight, and the broader economy, so a prolonged freight recession pressures volumes and pricing at once. The heavy terminal-expansion program raises costs and capital spending ahead of the revenue it is meant to generate: trailing free cash flow was only about $136M against roughly $606M of operating cash flow. The stock trades at about 32x trailing earnings, which amplifies downside if growth or margin recovery disappoints, and the roughly 23% drop over three months to October 2026 shows how quickly sentiment can turn. Competition from larger and better-capitalized rivals such as Old Dominion is intense, and fuel prices, driver costs, and labor availability all add volatility. Weather and seasonal demand swings can materially move any single quarter; the Q4 2026 consensus (about $2.71 EPS) is well below Q3's (about $3.30). TFII: The freight recession has dragged on for years, and TFII's LTL tonnage fell more than 7% year over year in a recent quarter while revenue per hundredweight also declined, so a delayed recovery would keep pressure on earnings. The stock has been volatile: it fell about 26 percent in the three months to October 16, 2026 even after a strong second quarter, and two brokers cut price targets in late September and early October. Debt of about $3.05 billion against roughly $205 million of cash also limits flexibility if the recovery stalls. Tariffs and softening industrial demand add uncertainty to volumes. Integration risk on acquisitions is real, since a mis-timed or poorly integrated deal can weigh on margins. Competition from Old Dominion, XPO, Knight-Swift, Saia, and Estes is intense in a consolidating LTL market.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell SAIA or TFII; figures are approximate and dated (as of October 2026). Verify current data before investing.