Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Stock Price & How to Invest

Genius Sports Limited is a sports data and technology company incorporated in Guernsey, headquartered in London, and listed on the New York Stock Exchange since its 2021 SPAC combination. The model has three linked parts. It signs exclusive rights with leagues and federations to collect their official real-time data, it distributes that data plus trading and streaming products to regulated sportsbooks, and it supplies technology back to the leagues themselves, which is often how the rights get paid for. Its anchor asset is the NFL, where Genius is the exclusive distributor of official data feeds and operates BetVision, the low-latency watch-and-bet product embedded inside sportsbook apps. That partnership was extended and widened and now runs through the end of the 2029 NFL season, and it lets Genius monetise advertising inventory against the BetVision streams. Beyond the NFL, the rights portfolio spans several hundred competitions including English football and FIBA basketball.

The 2026 picture is one of fast growth built partly on an acquisition. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was roughly $196 million, up about 65% from roughly $119 million a year earlier and ahead of the roughly $185 million the company had guided, with adjusted EBITDA of about $53 million against roughly $45 million guided. Betting revenue rose from about $92 million to about $117 million, while Media revenue jumped from about $27 million to about $78 million after the roughly $844 million purchase of Legend, a digital sports and gaming media network that owns Covers.com, Casino.org and Casino Guru, closed on 1 May 2026. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to roughly $1.005 billion to $1.025 billion of revenue and roughly $285 million to $295 million of adjusted EBITDA, about a 28.6% margin at the midpoint. Reported results are a different story: the group net loss widened to roughly $55.5 million in the first quarter of 2026 from roughly $8.2 million a year earlier, and trailing free cash flow was only about $28 million. At roughly $8.38 a share and a roughly $2.33 billion market cap, the stock prices in the guided ramp rather than the reported loss.

The dominant structural risk is rights renewal: Genius does not own the sports, it rents them, and every renewal is an auction that Sportradar and others can bid up until the contract stops being profitable. Customer concentration compounds it, because a handful of large sportsbooks generate a substantial share of Betting revenue and any one of them insourcing trading or data would be difficult to replace. Reported profitability remains negative and the first-quarter 2026 net loss of roughly $55.5 million widened materially year over year, so the equity story currently rests on adjusted EBITDA, a measure that excludes share-based compensation and acquisition costs. The Legend deal added cash outflow, contingent consideration tied to performance targets and integration work, and its affiliate sites depend on search traffic that a Google algorithm change can reduce without warning. Regulatory shifts, higher betting taxes on operators, and the growth of prediction-market exchanges that sit outside the traditional sportsbook customer base are all outside the company's control.

20 analysts publish price targets on GENI, averaging $10.93 against a $8.38 price as of August 2026, or +30.4%. The published targets run from $6.00 to $18.00, a wide spread, and the ratings split 17 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there have been 7 raises and 3 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full GENI forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on Genius Sports Limited. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. The NFL contract and BetVision. Exclusivity on official NFL data is the single most valuable thing Genius owns, and the extension running through the 2029 season removes the near-term renewal cliff that hung over the story. The most optimistic published target, $18.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. The dominant structural risk is rights renewal: Genius does not own the sports, it rents them, and every renewal is an auction that Sportradar and others can bid up until the contract stops being profitable. The most pessimistic target, $6.00, is roughly what GENI is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on GENI, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Genius Sports Limited's investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$790 million
• Q2 2026 revenue: ~$196 million, up ~65% year over year and ahead of ~$185 million guided
• Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA: ~$53 million against ~$45 million guided
• FY2026 guidance (raised): ~$1.005 billion to ~$1.025 billion revenue, ~$285 million to ~$295 million adjusted EBITDA (~28.6% margin at midpoint)
• Free cash flow (TTM): ~$28 million (~$51 million operating cash flow less ~$23 million capex)
• Market cap: ~$2.33 billion (stock ~$8.38)

At roughly $2.33 billion the market cap is about 2.9x trailing revenue and roughly 2.3x the midpoint of guided 2026 revenue, or about 8x guided adjusted EBITDA before adjusting for the debt raised to fund Legend. That is a growth multiple rather than a value one, and it is being paid on an adjusted figure while GAAP results are still loss-making. Figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date, so check live numbers and the latest 6-K before drawing conclusions.

Other names that sit close to GENI: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get GENI exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so GENI sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where GENI fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

Genius Sports is a rights-owning toll booth on regulated sports betting that is now scaling revenue and adjusted EBITDA quickly, while the reported bottom line stays negative and the model rests on repeatedly re-winning expensive league contracts.

Whether GENI is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is GENI a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the GENI stock forecast.

For income investors, whether GENI pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does GENI pay a dividend? And to weigh GENI against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: GENI vs DKNG and GENI vs FLUT.