AEVEX Corp. (AVEX) Stock Price & How to Invest

AEVEX Corp. was founded in 2017 and runs two segments. Tactical Systems designs and builds attritable unmanned systems: the Phoenix Ghost loitering munition family (including the Disruptor and Dominator variants first revealed publicly when the Pentagon sent 121 units to Ukraine in April 2022), plus the Mako unmanned surface vessel shown at the Special Operations Forces trade show in May 2026, which the company rates at up to 50 knots. Global Solutions is the services half: airborne ISR, processing and exploitation of collected imagery, and in-theater manufacturing and sustainment close to the units using the hardware. Roughly ~78% of revenue comes from government customers, the company employs about ~650 people, and it says it has more than ~10,200 systems committed through the end of 2026.

The investment picture is a fast-growing government supplier priced as a growth stock. Trailing twelve-month revenue reached about ~$697 million through June 2026 on net income of roughly ~$22.4 million (~$0.21 per share), and analysts now expect about ~$760 million of revenue for 2026, above the ~$600 million to ~$620 million management first guided before it raised the outlook with second-quarter results. Funded backlog was ~$356.6 million at March 31, 2026, about ~93% of which the company expected to convert to revenue over the remainder of the year, against an identified pipeline it puts at ~$8.2 billion. The offsets are structural rather than operational: Madison Dearborn Partners retains roughly ~79% of the voting power through a dual-class structure, the public float is small, and the stock has already traded between about ~$13.07 and ~$42.34 in its first months as a public company.

The second quarter of 2026, the first full period reported as a public company, came in well ahead of expectations: EPS of ~$0.19 against a ~$0.07 consensus, revenue roughly double the year-earlier quarter, and a lifted full-year outlook. Orders kept coming. In September AEVEX was selected for a Defense Department SkyRange hypersonic test-support contract worth up to ~$92.2 million and unveiled Specter, a jet-powered modular autonomous aircraft, and RBC counts ~$175 million of funded orders and about ~$260 million of total bookings in the third quarter. The share price has moved the other way. By October 16, 2026 it had fallen to $15.59, with RBC pointing to the ~65% of 2026 revenue tied to Ukraine-related programs, defense budget uncertainty around the 2026 midterm elections, a crowded drone field, and a poorly received secondary offering soon after the IPO. RBC cut its target to $26 from $31 on October 12 while keeping an Outperform rating. Third-quarter results are expected around November 12, 2026.

Customer concentration is the dominant exposure: roughly ~78% of revenue comes from government buyers, so a continuing resolution, a program cancellation or a reprioritization inside the unmanned systems budget can move a full year of results. The dual-class structure leaves Madison Dearborn Partners with about ~79% of the voting power, which means public holders have essentially no say on capital allocation, board composition or a future secondary sale that could pressure the share price. The single biggest program risk is Ukraine: about ~65% of 2026 revenue is tied to Ukraine-related programs, and a ceasefire or a shift in US aid would leave a gap that new awards must fill in 2027. The trailing P/E of ~74x looks high because GAAP earnings are thin, though the forward multiple of about ~22x is far lower than at the IPO. Order lumpiness is real, since a single production lot can swing a quarter and funded backlog of ~$356.6 million covers well under a year of revenue. And as a 2026 IPO with a limited public float, the stock has already ranged from about ~$13.07 to ~$42.34, so drawdowns unrelated to fundamentals should be expected; the shares fell about 42% from their first trade to October 16, 2026, despite beating second-quarter estimates. Operating cash flow was also negative, about ~-$61 million over the last twelve months, as working capital grew with production.

10 analysts publish price targets on AVEX, averaging $25.80 against a $11.69 price as of November 2026, or +120.7%. The published targets run from $13.00 to $45.00, a wide spread, and the ratings split 10 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there has been 1 raise and 3 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full AVEX forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on AEVEX Corp.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. One-way attack drone procurement moving from experiment to program of record. AEVEX booked roughly ~$88.1 million of production orders for long-range precision strike systems announced in late July 2026, on top of a ~$50 million US Air Force award for advanced unmanned mission capabilities on June 30, 2026 and a ~$17.5 million follow-on in early July. The most optimistic published target, $45.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. Customer concentration is the dominant exposure: roughly ~78% of revenue comes from government buyers, so a continuing resolution, a program cancellation or a reprioritization inside the unmanned systems budget can move a full year of results. The most pessimistic target, $13.00, is roughly what AVEX is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on AVEX, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

No. AEVEX Corp. (AVEX) has not split its stock in the last 10 years. The statement covers only the window we check, so an older split in the company’s history is possible. It also matters less than it once did: fractional shares mean a high price per share no longer keeps smaller investors out, which removed most of the practical reason to split.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see AEVEX Corp.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$697 million through June 2026; Q2 roughly double the prior-year quarter
• Q2 2026 EPS: ~$0.19 vs ~$0.07 consensus
• Net income (TTM): ~$22.4 million, or ~$0.21 per share
• Margins (TTM): Gross ~25.4%, operating ~10.2%
• P/E trailing / forward: ~74x / ~22x at $15.59
• Revenue estimates: ~$760 million for 2026, ~$914 million for 2027
• Cash and debt: ~$215 million cash, ~$108 million debt
• Market capitalization: ~$1.1 billion (Yahoo Finance count)

AEVEX is profitable, which distinguishes it from most drone-adjacent listings, and at ~1.6x trailing sales and ~22x forward earnings it now trades well below the multiples of its April debut. The market is discounting the ~65% of 2026 revenue tied to Ukraine-related programs and the risk that 2027 does not grow as analysts expect. Third-quarter results, expected around November 12, 2026 (consensus ~$0.09 per share on ~$150 million of revenue), are the next read on bookings and the 2027 setup.

Other names that sit close to AVEX: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. They are useful if you want to spread one thesis across several tickers.

There are three common ways to get AVEX exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so AVEX sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where AVEX fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

AEVEX is a real, profitable, order-backed drone maker whose share price is underwritten by Pentagon budget lines. A strong second quarter and a raised full-year outlook have not stopped the stock sliding since its IPO, because the open question has moved to 2027: whether new US awards can fill the gap if Ukraine-related demand fades.

Whether AVEX is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is AVEX a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the AVEX stock forecast.

For income investors, whether AVEX pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does AVEX pay a dividend? And to weigh AVEX against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: AVEX vs AVAV and AVEX vs KTOS.