ASML vs NVDA: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
Last updated October 2026
Short answer
NVDA is the larger of the two ($5.17T market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (13.45x forward earnings, beta 2.22). ASML is the smaller challenger ($630.51B), actually pricier on forward earnings (26.37x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.
ASML vs NVDA: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | ASML | NVDA | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $630.51B | $5.17T | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 26.37 | 13.45 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 40.39 | 27.07 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 1.30 | 2.22 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 66% of range | 63% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 1,414.45 | 22.58 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Reading it: NVDA is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.
Before you buy: how ASML and NVDA affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. ASML and NVDA share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined ASML and NVDA exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does ASML Holding (ASML) do?
ASML Holding designs and manufactures lithography machines, the equipment semiconductor fabs use to print circuit patterns onto silicon wafers. The company is a monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, the technology required to make leading-edge chips below the 7nm node. There is no other company in the world that produces EUV systems, which means every advanced chip manufacturer (TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix) is an ASML customer.
What does NVIDIA (NVDA) do?
NVIDIA (NVDA) designs the graphics processing units (GPUs) and the software stack that have become the standard compute platform for modern artificial intelligence. The company operates across four reporting segments. Data Center sells GPUs to the major cloud providers (Microsoft Azure, AWS, Google Cloud, Oracle, Meta) and to AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI) for training and running large language models; it brought in about $89 billion of the $96.2 billion total in the quarter ended July 26, 2026, roughly 92% of revenue. Gaming covers GeForce consumer GPUs, NVIDIA's original core market. Professional Visualization sells workstation GPUs for design and simulation, and Automotive ships the DRIVE platform for assisted and autonomous driving. NVIDIA also builds CUDA, the proprietary software platform that lets developers write code that runs on its GPUs and that AI frameworks like PyTorch, TensorFlow, and JAX target first. Founded in 1993 by Jensen Huang, Chris Malachowsky, and Curtis Priem, headquartered in Santa Clara, California, and led by co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang, NVIDIA is the most valuable listed company in the world at about $5.25 trillion in mid-October 2026. It designs its chips and outsources manufacturing primarily to TSMC.
ASML vs NVDA: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- ASML drivers: High-NA EUV ramp; AI infrastructure pulling demand forward.
- NVDA drivers: Continued AI infrastructure dominance; Beyond hyperscalers: sovereign AI and enterprise.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Geopolitical export restrictions could expand and cut more China revenue, which is still about 20% of 2026 sales. For NVDA, customer concentration is high: a handful of hyperscalers and AI clouds account for a large share of revenue, so any slowdown in their AI capex hits results directly, and some newer GPU-cloud customers carry heavy debt.
ASML or NVDA: which should you pick?
Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick ASML if you believe its drivers more; NVDA if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the ASML and NVDA guides.
ASML vs NVDA: the full fundamentals
ASML. ASML's premium valuation reflects its EUV monopoly position, and 2026 earnings growth has been fast enough that the forward multiple (about 27x) is well below the trailing one. Consensus for the fourth quarter is about EUR 14.8 billion of revenue and EUR 15.39 of EPS, and the mean analyst target of about $2,156 across 17 analysts sits above the current price. The premium compresses if semiconductor capex cycles down materially.
NVDA. The trailing P/E of about 27.5x is far lower than the roughly 50x of early 2026, because earnings more than doubled while the stock rose about 15% this year; on next fiscal year's consensus EPS of about $15.91 the multiple is under 14x. The market still prices continued hyperscaler AI capex, 60%+ operating margins, and a CUDA software moat. The risk is symmetrical: if AI spending slows, estimates and the multiple can fall together. NVIDIA guided the October 2026 quarter to about $108 billion of revenue (consensus about $109 billion) and reports on November 17, 2026.
Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): ASML shows revenue (ttm) ~EUR 39.5 billion; Q3 2026 ~EUR 11.7 billion, up ~55%, q3 2026 eps EUR 11.82 vs ~EUR 10.76 consensus, margins 57.5% gross in Q3 2026; ~44% operating, ~34% net (TTM), net income (ttm) ~EUR 13.5 billion; NVDA shows revenue (ttm) ~$303 billion (+106% YoY in the July 2026 quarter), data center revenue (q2 fy2027) ~$89 billion, ~92% of revenue, operating margin (ttm) ~66%, exceptionally high for a hardware company, net income (ttm) ~$193 billion.
The bottom line: ASML vs NVDA
ASML and NVDA are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined ASML and NVDA exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Wondering how ASML or NVDA fits the portfolio you already own? Walnut is an AI investing app that connects your brokerage read-only and answers questions like that about your actual holdings: overlap, concentration, and how each position tracks the S&P 500. Compare the best AI portfolio analyzers or see the best AI investing apps in 2026.
Investing in ASML Holding with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how ASML fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between ASML and NVDA?
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ASML Holding designs and manufactures lithography machines, the equipment semiconductor fabs use to print circuit patterns onto silicon wafers. NVIDIA (NVDA) designs the graphics processing units (GPUs) and the software stack that have become the standard compute platform for modern artificial intelligence. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is ASML or NVDA the better stock?
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Neither is universally better. NVDA is the larger incumbent; ASML is the smaller challenger and looks pricier on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, ASML or NVDA?
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On forward P/E (as of October 2026), ASML trades at 26.37x and NVDA at 13.45x, so NVDA is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both ASML and NVDA?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of ASML vs NVDA?
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ASML: Geopolitical export restrictions could expand and cut more China revenue, which is still about 20% of 2026 sales. The semiconductor capex cycle eventually turns down; even an EUV monopoly can't escape the broader cycle, and after a 63% one-year gain the stock is priced for sustained growth, at about 41x trailing and 27x forward earnings on Yahoo Finance's figures. Capacity is a constraint as well as a signal: if ASML cannot ship as fast as customers want, revenue timing can slip. Sentiment around AI spending can move the shares sharply regardless of results, as the selloff after the October 14 report showed. NVDA: Customer concentration is high: a handful of hyperscalers and AI clouds account for a large share of revenue, so any slowdown in their AI capex hits results directly, and some newer GPU-cloud customers carry heavy debt. Those same large customers are building custom AI silicon (Google TPU, AWS Trainium and Inferentia, Microsoft Maia, Meta MTIA), and AMD's MI300X and MI400 series are a real second source. Geopolitics matter too: US export restrictions have effectively removed China data center sales (NVIDIA's outlook assumes none), Taiwan policy affects the supply chain, and NVIDIA depends entirely on TSMC for manufacturing. The valuation remains the largest risk: even at about 27x trailing earnings, a $5 trillion market value assumes AI spending keeps growing for years, and the stock compresses quickly if the buildout decelerates. Free cash flow of about $42 billion over the trailing twelve months is well below net income, which reflects heavy working-capital and supply commitments.
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Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell ASML or NVDA; figures are approximate and dated (as of October 2026). Verify current data before investing.