CHDN vs MCRI: How Churchill Downs Incorporated and Monarch Casino & Resort Compare (2026)
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
CHDN is the larger of the two ($6.23B market cap): the incumbent the market prices for continued execution (12.27x forward earnings, beta 0.67). MCRI is the smaller challenger ($2.19B), actually pricier on forward earnings (17.73x): more room to run, but more to prove. The real question is which set of drivers you believe, and whether owning one (or both) leaves you over-concentrated.
CHDN vs MCRI: the tie-breaker metrics
Same yardstick, side by side (as of July 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.
| Metric | CHDN | MCRI | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $6.23B | $2.19B | Size. The larger name is the incumbent; the smaller has more room to grow and more to prove. |
| Forward P/E | 12.27 | 17.73 | Valuation on next year's expected earnings, the same yardstick for both. Lower is cheaper for that growth; higher means the market is paying up. |
| Trailing P/E | 16.45 | 19.63 | Valuation on the last 12 months. A big drop from trailing to forward means the market expects earnings to jump, so more growth is already in the price. |
| Beta | 0.67 | 1.33 | Volatility vs the market. Above 1 swings harder than the index; below 1 is steadier. Higher beta means bigger drawdowns to hold through. |
| Price vs 52-week range | 24% of range | 71% of range | Where today's price sits between the 52-week low and high. Near the high is momentum with less margin of safety; near the low is out of favor or a discount, depending on why. |
| Price / book | 5.68 | 3.80 | How much you pay over book value. Very high can signal an asset-light, high-return business or a rich price. |
Reading it: CHDN is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.
Before you buy: how CHDN and MCRI affect your concentration
The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. CHDN and MCRI share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.
This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined CHDN and MCRI exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What does Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) do?
Churchill Downs Incorporated operates through three reportable segments: Live and Historical Racing (the Churchill Downs Racetrack that hosts the Kentucky Derby plus Derby City Gaming and a growing fleet of historical racing machine, or HRM, venues in Kentucky and Virginia), Wagering Services and Solutions (the TwinSpires online horse-race wagering platform, the Exacta HRM technology business, and United Tote), and Gaming (regional casino and racetrack properties). The Kentucky Derby remains the crown jewel, generating record luxury ticket sales and TV audiences, while HRM parlors have become the primary growth engine as new venues open across Kentucky and Virginia.
What does Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) do?
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. owns and operates two casino resorts under a premium, service-focused model: the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa in Reno, Nevada, and the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk near Denver, Colorado. Revenue comes from three main buckets: casino gaming (slots and table games), hotel rooms, and food and beverage, with the spa, retail, and amenities rounding out a full-resort experience. Unlike sprawling national operators, Monarch concentrates all of its effort on maximizing the returns of just two owned properties, which is why it consistently posts some of the higher operating margins in regional gaming. The Farahi family founded and still helps run the company, giving it an owner-operator culture built around cost control and reinvestment in the physical assets.
CHDN vs MCRI: how do they differ?
Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.
- CHDN drivers: Historical racing machine expansion; Kentucky Derby franchise and pricing power.
- MCRI drivers: Two premium properties and margin discipline; Black Hawk growth near Denver.
Which fits which kind of investor
A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Churchill Downs carries substantial leverage, with net debt of roughly $4.9 billion and a debt-to-equity ratio well above peers, which magnifies both returns and downside as interest costs and maturities in 2027 and 2028 come due. For MCRI, the most immediate company-specific risk is the PCL Construction litigation tied to the Black Hawk expansion, which has produced a judgment and recorded liability in the tens of millions (a roughly $74.6 million principal judgment and a litigation liability near $78.5 million) now under appeal; an adverse final outcome would be a real cash cost even though the balance sheet can absorb it.
CHDN or MCRI: which should you pick?
Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick CHDN if you believe its drivers more; MCRI if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the CHDN and MCRI guides.
CHDN vs MCRI: the full fundamentals
CHDN. Churchill Downs trades at a mid-teens earnings multiple after record Q1 2026 revenue of about $663 million and adjusted EBITDA near $257 million, with diluted EPS of $1.16. The valuation reflects steady growth alongside heavy leverage (net debt around $4.9 billion), so much of the equity story hinges on HRM expansion continuing to compound EBITDA faster than interest costs rise.
MCRI. Figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date; verify live numbers before acting. Monarch trades at a mid-20s earnings multiple that reflects its record margins, clean balance sheet, and steady cash returns, richer than some larger regional peers but supported by no debt and consistent execution. The recorded litigation liability is a real potential cash outflow that valuation frameworks should treat separately from ongoing operating earnings. Some analyst and DCF-based valuations have flagged the shares as trading below estimated fair value, but those models rest on assumptions about future visitation and margins that may not hold.
Headline figures (approximate, July 2026): CHDN shows revenue (ttm) ~$2.9B, fy2025 net income ~$383M, q1 2026 revenue ~$663M (record), q1 2026 adjusted ebitda ~$257M (record); MCRI shows revenue (ttm) ~$556 million (Q1 2026 was ~$136.6 million, up ~8.9% year over year), net income (q1 2026) ~$27.6 million, up ~38.9% year over year, diluted eps (q1 2026) ~$1.52 (beat estimates near $1.17), adjusted ebitda (q1 2026) ~$49 million, ~35.8% margin (a record first-quarter margin).
The bottom line: CHDN vs MCRI
CHDN and MCRI are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined CHDN and MCRI exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.
Investing in Churchill Downs Incorporated with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how CHDN fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the difference between CHDN and MCRI?
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Churchill Downs Incorporated operates through three reportable segments: Live and Historical Racing (the Churchill Downs Racetrack that hosts the Kentucky Derby plus Derby City Gaming and a growing fleet of historical racing machine, or HRM, venues in Kentucky and Virginia), Wagering Services and Solutions (the TwinSpires online horse-race wagering platform, the Exacta HRM technology business, and United Tote), and Gaming (regional casino and racetrack properties). Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. They show up together because they share investment themes, but they are different businesses, so the better fit depends on which thesis you are expressing.
Is CHDN or MCRI the better stock?
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Neither is universally better. CHDN is the larger incumbent; MCRI is the smaller challenger and looks pricier on forward earnings. Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Compare what each does, the tie-breaker metrics above, and the risks, then decide which fits your thesis and what you already own.
Which is cheaper, CHDN or MCRI?
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On forward P/E (as of July 2026), CHDN trades at 12.27x and MCRI at 17.73x, so CHDN is the cheaper of the two on next year's expected earnings. A lower multiple is not automatically the better buy: a richer valuation can be justified by faster growth, and a lower one can reflect real risk. Weigh the multiple against how fast each business is compounding.
Should you own both CHDN and MCRI?
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Because they share themes, owning both concentrates you in that theme. That can be intentional (a focused bet) or accidental (less diversification than it looks). Walnut can show your combined exposure across both, and whether adding either over-concentrates you, before you buy.
What are the risks of CHDN vs MCRI?
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CHDN: Churchill Downs carries substantial leverage, with net debt of roughly $4.9 billion and a debt-to-equity ratio well above peers, which magnifies both returns and downside as interest costs and maturities in 2027 and 2028 come due. The business is exposed to discretionary consumer spending, so a weaker economy could pressure gaming volumes and Derby-week spend. Large capital projects and acquisitions carry execution and financing risk, and regional gaming faces competition and potential regulatory or tax changes. HRM legality and expansion depend on state-by-state rules that could shift. Concentration in a single flagship event also means weather, safety, or reputational issues around the Derby carry outsized weight. MCRI: The most immediate company-specific risk is the PCL Construction litigation tied to the Black Hawk expansion, which has produced a judgment and recorded liability in the tens of millions (a roughly $74.6 million principal judgment and a litigation liability near $78.5 million) now under appeal; an adverse final outcome would be a real cash cost even though the balance sheet can absorb it. Concentration is a structural risk: with only two properties, a downturn, weather event, or new competitor in either the Reno or Black Hawk market hits results directly, and management has publicly called Reno one of the most competitive gaming markets in the country. Regional gaming is discretionary and economically sensitive, so a consumer slowdown can pressure visitation and spend. The stock is small-cap and less liquid than national operators, which can amplify price swings. Finally, the owner-operator structure concentrates decision-making in a small group, which is a strength in good times and a governance risk if interests diverge from outside shareholders.
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Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page is descriptive and not a recommendation to buy or sell CHDN or MCRI; figures are approximate and dated (as of July 2026). Verify current data before investing.