CMRC vs SHOP: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of October 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: CMRC is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. CMRC and SHOP share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined CMRC and SHOP exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Commerce.com, Inc. is the parent of three software products for online sellers. BigCommerce is a hosted (software-as-a-service) storefront platform used by business-to-consumer and business-to-business merchants. Feedonomics takes a merchant's product catalog and formats it for marketplaces, ad networks, search engines and, increasingly, AI shopping assistants. Makeswift is a visual site-building tool for marketing teams. In fiscal 2025 the company booked $342.3M of revenue, up 2.8%. About $255.6M (75%) came from subscription solutions, which covers platform plans, Feedonomics feed management and recurring services. The other $86.7M came from partner and services revenue, mostly revenue-sharing from payments and technology partners such as PayPal, Google and Stripe, plus integration fees and one-off professional services. Revenue is concentrated in the US (about 76% in fiscal 2025), with EMEA at 12% and growing fastest.

Full CMRC guide

Shopify provides software that lets businesses build and run online stores, sell across social channels and marketplaces, and operate physical retail from one system. It earns money two ways. Subscription Solutions are recurring fees merchants pay for the platform and apps (about $750 million, or roughly 24% of revenue, in Q1 2026). Merchant Solutions are transaction-linked services, primarily Shopify Payments plus capital lending, shipping, and point-of-sale, which scale with the dollar value of goods merchants sell (about $2.42 billion, or roughly 76% of revenue, in Q1 2026). Because so much revenue is tied to gross merchandise volume, Shopify's results move with how much its merchants actually sell.

Full SHOP guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• CMRC drivers: The September 2026 cost plan; Feedonomics and AI shopping channels.
• SHOP drivers: Take rate on a growing GMV base; Merchant solutions mix shift.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: The plainest risk is that revenue starts shrinking: full-year 2026 guidance of $336.5M to $344.5M, cut in August from $347.5M to $369.5M, spans a small decline to under 1% growth against 2025's $342.3M, and subscription revenue fell 1% in the June quarter. For SHOP, the clearest risk is valuation: SHOP trades at roughly 12x revenue with a triple-digit trailing P/E and a forward P/E in the low 60s, so the price embeds years of strong growth and leaves little margin for disappointment.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick CMRC if you believe its drivers more; SHOP if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the CMRC and SHOP guides.

CMRC. With about 83 million shares outstanding and the stock in the mid-$2 range in early September 2026 (Pale Fire's reported purchases imply ~$2.55 a share), CMRC carried an equity value of roughly $210M, which is well under one times annual revenue. Cash roughly offsets the convertible debt, so enterprise value is about the same. That low multiple for a ~75% gross margin software company reflects flat revenue, sub-100% retention and a history of losses. The September plan reframes the math: if 2027 non-GAAP operating margins reach the 20% target on revenue near $340M, operating income would be around $68M, roughly double the 2026 guidance midpoint. The first half of 2026 was GAAP profitable ($4.8M), but the second half carries up to ~$26M of restructuring costs.

SHOP. Shopify is priced as a premium growth compounder, not a value stock. The multiple reflects durable 30%-plus revenue growth and expanding free cash flow, but it also means the market is paying up front for execution that has to keep arriving. These figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date; check a current quote and the latest filing before acting.

Headline figures (approximate, October 2026): CMRC shows revenue (ttm to june 2026) ~$347M, fy2026 revenue guidance ~$336.5M to $344.5M, gaap net income (ttm) ~-$6M (loss), non-gaap operating income (fy2026 guidance) ~$28M to $34M; SHOP shows revenue (q1 2026) ~$3.17B, up ~34% YoY, gmv (q1 2026) ~$100.7B, up ~35% YoY, merchant solutions / subscriptions mix ~76% / ~24% of revenue, free cash flow (q1 2026) ~$476M (~15% margin).

CMRC and SHOP are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined CMRC and SHOP exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.