COP vs VLO: How ConocoPhillips and Valero Energy Compare (2026)

Same yardstick, side by side (as of July 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. COP and VLO share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined COP and VLO exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an exploration and production (E&P) company focused exclusively on the upstream segment of the oil and gas industry. It finds, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from a globally diversified asset base that includes U.S. Lower 48 shale plays (Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken), Alaska (including the Willow development project), Canadian oil sands at Surmont, operations in Norway and Qatar, and equity stakes in LNG projects including Australia Pacific LNG and the Port Arthur LNG facility on the U.S. Gulf Coast. The company makes money by selling the hydrocarbons it produces at prevailing market prices, with profitability driven primarily by realized commodity prices, production volumes, and its cost-of-supply discipline. It does not operate refineries or fuel retail networks, giving it a focused capital structure but also direct exposure to commodity price swings.

Full COP guide

Valero Energy is the largest independent petroleum refiner in the world, operating 15 refineries across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom with a combined throughput capacity of roughly 3.2 million barrels per day. Unlike an integrated major, Valero does not produce much of its own crude oil, so it makes money on the spread between the cost of crude and the price of refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel (the refining margin, or crack spread). It reports three segments: Refining, which is the core profit engine; Renewable Diesel, run through the Diamond Green Diesel joint venture with Darling Ingredients; and Ethanol, from a network of corn ethanol plants.

Full VLO guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• COP drivers: Marathon Oil Integration and Scale; Willow Project and Long-Cycle Growth.
• VLO drivers: Scale in refining and record throughput; Heavy capital returns to shareholders.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: COP's revenues and free cash flow are highly sensitive to crude oil and natural gas prices, and any sustained commodity price decline would directly erode earnings and the company's ability to fund its capital-return targets. For VLO, valero's earnings are highly cyclical and depend on refining crack spreads, which can collapse quickly when product demand weakens or new refining capacity comes online, as shown by the net loss it reported in the first quarter of 2025.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick COP if you believe its drivers more; VLO if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the COP and VLO guides.

COP. COP's trailing P/E of roughly 19x sits approximately 59 percent above its own 10-year median of around 12x and modestly above the oil and gas industry average of roughly 16x, suggesting the market is pricing in meaningful growth from Willow, LNG, and post-Marathon synergies. Free cash flow of roughly $5.85 billion TTM reflects elevated capital expenditures during the current heavy-investment cycle, and management projects a material step-up in free cash flow as long-cycle projects come online toward 2029. The dividend yield near 3.1 percent, combined with active buybacks, provides a tangible total-return component that partially compensates holders during periods of softer commodity prices.

VLO. Valero swung from a Q1 2025 net loss to about $1.3 billion of net income in Q1 2026 as refining margins recovered, and full-year 2025 net income was roughly $2.3 billion (about $3.3 billion adjusted). At a share price near $290 and a market cap around $86 billion, the stock trades near 20 times trailing earnings, though refiner multiples are noisy because earnings gyrate with the margin cycle.

Headline figures (approximate, June 27, 2026): COP shows revenue (ttm, ~march 2026) ~$60.5 billion, net income (ttm) ~$7.3 billion, eps (ttm, dec 2025) ~$6.34, p/e ratio (ttm) ~19x; VLO shows revenue (ttm) ~$130 billion, net income (fy2025) ~$2.3 billion ($7.57 EPS), adjusted eps (fy2025) ~$10.61, q1 2026 net income ~$1.3 billion ($4.22 EPS).

COP and VLO are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined COP and VLO exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.