CTOS vs HRI: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of September 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

Reading it: HRI is the cheaper of the two on forward earnings, but cheaper is not the same as better. Pair the valuation with growth (how far the forward P/E sits below the trailing P/E) and risk (beta) before you decide.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. CTOS and HRI share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined CTOS and HRI exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Custom Truck One Source rents and sells specialized work trucks and equipment (bucket trucks, digger derricks, cranes, aerial lifts, service trucks) to the crews that build and maintain electric transmission and distribution lines, telecom networks, rail, forestry and waste operations across the US and Canada. It runs three segments: Equipment Rental Solutions (ERS), Truck and Equipment Sales (TES), and Aftermarket Parts and Services (APS). The pitch is a one-stop platform that spans rental, new and used sales, parts, and service, tied directly to long-cycle infrastructure demand drivers like grid modernization and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

Full CTOS guide

Herc Holdings rents out aerial lifts, earthmoving and material-handling equipment, trucks, compressors, generators and related gear to construction, industrial, infrastructure and event customers across North America, and it also sells used fleet and contractor supplies plus repair, safety-training and equipment-management services. It is the third-largest equipment-rental company in the US behind United Rentals and Ashtead's Sunbelt Rentals, and it competes as a broad-line renter with growing specialty and national-account exposure. The model is capital-intensive: Herc buys fleet, rents it on high day-rates, and lives on utilization, rate, and how efficiently it recycles aging equipment into the used market.

Full HRI guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• CTOS drivers: Grid modernization and utility T&D demand; Rental fleet utilization and mix.
• HRI drivers: H&E integration and synergies; Mega-project and infrastructure demand.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: CTOS is highly cyclical and capital-intensive, so a downturn in construction, utility or infrastructure spending would hit both rental demand and used-equipment resale values. For HRI, hRI is cyclical and capital-intensive, so a downturn in non-residential construction or industrial activity can compress utilization, rates and residual values quickly, and high operating leverage amplifies the hit.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick CTOS if you believe its drivers more; HRI if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the CTOS and HRI guides.

CTOS. CTOS trades on EBITDA and leverage rather than earnings, since GAAP results have hovered around breakeven to small losses. The enterprise value is dominated by debt, so the equity is effectively a levered claim on a growing but capital-heavy rental platform. Whether the multiple re-rates depends heavily on hitting the sub-four-times leverage target.

HRI. Herc affirmed 2026 guidance for equipment-rental revenue of roughly $4.275B to $4.4B and adjusted EBITDA of about $2.0B to $2.1B after a Q1 that beat on adjusted EPS while posting a GAAP net loss on acquisition and interest costs. The stock trades near a mid-single-digit-billion market cap, well below United Rentals, reflecting its number-three position and elevated post-deal leverage. Valuation multiples are best read on EBITDA and free cash flow rather than reported EPS given the acquisition noise.

Headline figures (approximate, July 2026): CTOS shows revenue (2025) ~$1.94B, revenue (q1 2026) ~$462M (+9%), adjusted ebitda (ltm) ~$408M, 2026 adj. ebitda guidance ~$415M-440M; HRI shows revenue (ttm) ~$4.2B, q1 2026 total revenue ~$1.14B (+32% YoY), fy2026 adj. ebitda guidance ~$2.0B to $2.1B, market cap ~$5B.

CTOS and HRI are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined CTOS and HRI exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.