MOS vs NTR: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

Same yardstick, side by side (as of August 2026). Valuation lined up like this is most meaningful for two names in the same corner of the market, which these are. Figures are approximate; verify before investing.

The metrics above tell you which is the marginally better business. The bigger risk for most people is not picking the slightly worse stock, it is over-concentrating. MOS and NTR share themes, so owning both, or adding either to what you already hold, can quietly push a large share of your portfolio into one bet.

This is the part a generic comparison page cannot answer, because it depends on what you own. Connect your brokerage and Walnut shows your real, combined MOS and NTR exposure, flags overlap with your existing positions, and tells you if adding one would tip you past a concentration you are comfortable with, read-only by default, with your login staying at your broker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

The Mosaic Company is a leading global producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash, the two primary crop nutrients it mines, processes, and distributes to farmers and dealers worldwide. Its business runs across three reporting segments: Phosphates (finished phosphate fertilizers plus premium products like MicroEssentials), Potash (potassium fertilizer from mines in Saskatchewan, New Mexico, and elsewhere), and Mosaic Fertilizantes, a large Brazil-based production and distribution arm that now drives roughly a third of the company's business. Mosaic sells into agriculture, where nutrient demand is tied to planted acreage, crop prices, and farmer economics.

Full MOS guide

Nutrien is a Canadian-headquartered agricultural giant formed from the 2018 merger of Potash Corp and Agrium, and it reports in U.S. dollars. The company runs four segments: Retail (Nutrien Ag Solutions), which distributes crop nutrients, crop protection, seed and services to farmers through a large network of stores across North America, South America and Australia, plus three upstream segments (Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate) that mine and manufacture the fertilizers themselves. Nutrien is the largest potash producer in the world by capacity and one of the largest nitrogen producers, so its upstream results move directly with global fertilizer benchmarks, while Retail earns more stable margins from proprietary products and services.

Full NTR guide

Both fit overlapping themes, but they are not interchangeable. The useful comparison is which set of drivers and risks you want exposure to.

• MOS drivers: Global crop-nutrient demand; Potash and Esterhazy productivity.
• NTR drivers: Potash pricing and record volumes; Nitrogen leverage to natural gas.

A faster-growing, richer-valued name usually swings harder, so it suits a longer horizon and a higher tolerance for volatility; a steadier, more cash-generative business suits a more conservative or income-minded investor. The honest test is which set of risks you could hold through a drawdown: Mosaic is a cyclical commodity producer, so its earnings can swing dramatically with potash and phosphate prices and are exposed to sharp input-cost inflation in sulfur, ammonia, and natural gas. For NTR, the dominant risk is commodity price cyclicality: potash, nitrogen and phosphate prices can fall sharply, and because upstream margins are highly operationally geared, consolidated earnings can drop far faster than revenue.

Growth-minded investors who believe the theme has years to run tend to accept the richer multiple for more upside; value-minded investors lean toward the cheaper forward earnings and steadier profile. Pick MOS if you believe its drivers more; NTR if you believe its. Many investors hold both, but since they share themes, that is a concentrated bet, not diversification. Decide deliberately and check overlap. For the full detail, see the MOS and NTR guides.

MOS. Mosaic's trailing revenue of roughly $12.4 billion contrasts with thin trailing profitability, reflecting the input-cost squeeze that produced a first-quarter 2026 net loss. The very high trailing price-to-earnings ratio is a function of depressed earnings rather than a growth premium, which is typical for a commodity producer near a cyclical low. Figures are approximate and move with nutrient prices and quarterly results.

NTR. As of July 2026 NTR trades near $66 for a market cap of roughly $32 billion, at a trailing P/E around 16 and a forward P/E near 15.5, modest multiples typical of a cyclical commodity producer. Q1 2026 revenue was ~$6.0 billion (up ~19% year over year) with adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.11 billion, and the business is seasonal, with the spring planting quarter usually the strongest. Because so much of the profit is commodity-driven, valuation multiples on trailing earnings can look cheap near cycle peaks and expensive near troughs, so context on where fertilizer prices sit matters more than the headline P/E.

Headline figures (approximate, JULY 2026): MOS shows revenue (ttm) ~$12.4 billion, market cap ~$6.8 billion, q1 2026 net result ~$258 million net loss, diluted eps (ttm) ~$0.14; NTR shows share price ~$66, market cap ~$32 billion, revenue (ttm) ~$28 billion, fy2025 net earnings ~$2.3 billion.

MOS and NTR are related but distinct: same themes, different businesses and risks. Neither wins in the abstract; the right pick is whichever thesis you actually believe, sized so you are not over-concentrated in one theme. Walnut can show your combined MOS and NTR exposure against your real portfolio. It is not an investment adviser.